Meloni and von der Leyen’s messy split

ROME — Giorgia Meloni is picking a fight with Ursula von der Leyen. And it could get ugly.

The Italian prime minister is furious about the European Commission’s annual rule of law report, which expressed concerns about press freedom in Italy and the independence of its public broadcaster, Rai. Meloni has taken legal action against journalists, citing defamation, which is a criminal offense punishable by prison in Italy. And her appointment of loyalists to top jobs at the state broadcaster has led to the departure of some top journalists. 

Since the report was published, Meloni fired off a letter to von der Leyen, the European Commission president, saying the criticisms in the report resulted in “clumsy and specious attacks” by journalists. 

It’s the latest interaction in a deteriorating relationship between the two leaders.

In the two weeks since Members of the European Parliament ultimately confirmed a second term for von der Leyen, the Meloni government has continued to lock horns with the European Commission, raising alarm bells around a relationship that once was seen as civilized one of convenience. 

Senior EU officials and diplomats questioned the wisdom of publicly dismissing von der Leyen. “What Meloni did was just plain stupid,” one senior EU diplomat said after the vote in Parliament. “She burnt so much political capital in a number of weeks.”

In the run-up to a vote on her second term among EU leaders in June, von der Leyen spent months bending over backwards to build ties with Meloni. Together, the two surveilled an entry point for migrants to Italy. The bloc offered condolences to flood-ridden communities in Italy, and von der Leyen joined in when Meloni discussed her expanded political strategy on the African continent in Rome.  

Then Meloni abstained when EU leaders voted on a second term for von der Leyen, angry at being cut out of a backroom deal done in Brussels by von der Leyen’s centrist conservatives, the liberals of French President Emmanuel Macron and the socialists of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

At the time, it was thought her Brothers of Italy party would still support von der Leyen when a vote was held in the European Parliament. They didn’t.  

Lorenzo Castellani, a politics lecturer at Luiss University in Rome, said Meloni “had built up credibility in diplomatic and financial circles as well as with the Commission and had benefited from numerous concessions, including on the [EU’s coronavirus] recovery fund and migration.” She has now “thrown it away.” 

A marginalized Italy?

The vote on von der Leyen put Meloni at a crossroads, forced to choose between cementing her place as a mainstream moderate voice in European affairs and her instinctive desire to remain a pugnacious and radical outsider. 

Since becoming prime minister in 2022, Meloni has presided over a right-wing government that has ordered the automatic detention of migrants and limited the parental and reproductive rights of same-sex couples. In Europe, her party has pushed back against the Green Deal and opposed including the right to abortion in the EU’s Charter of Fundamental Rights. 

Ursula von der Leyen spent months bending over backwards to build ties with Meloni. | Frederick Florina/Getty Images

Meloni critics have portrayed the tension with von der Leyen as evidence of Italy’s marginalization in Europe.

Italian lawmaker Riccardo Magi, a centrist and vocal critic of Meloni, said she “was playing the victim which is the reaction of someone who intends to play the role of underdog.”

Still, von der Leyen and Meloni need one another. 

The Commission was baffled by the reaction from Rome to the rule of law report, particularly as the report was prepared in consultation with the government. 

On an official visit to China this week, Meloni tried to tamp down the tension, saying her letter was “not evidence of tensions, but a reflection on the manipulation of a technical document, in which the critical accents are not from the Commission but from stakeholders,” who she claimed were Italy’s left-wing press.

Economics vs. The Med

In the short term, the tensions could affect the type of portfolio the next Italian member of the Commission receives. The main name circulating for that job is European affairs minister Raffaele Fitto, who is well-regarded in Brussels.

If Meloni puts forward a more right-wing figure, von der Leyen could punish Meloni with the symbolic new Mediterranean portfolio, according to diplomats. While Italy was one of the countries asking for a Mediterranean portfolio, as a heavily indebted country, its European priorities are more economic, so the government is hoping for a heavyweight economic commissioner. It’s also still unclear how much political clout and which responsibilities the new Mediterranean portfolio will have.

But it’s about more than jobs and influence. Italy has the second-highest public debt in Europe and a deficit that breaches EU limits. This sets Rome up for a clash with the European Commission as new fiscal rules denote punishment for countries with large deficits. 

Bumps in the road could add to pressure on Italy. “If there is a financial crisis that increases the cost of Italy’s debt, not being part of the majority could have repercussions, particularly if debt rules and Recovery Plan deadlines are applied strictly, ” said Castellani. 

Maurizio Gasparri of the center-right Forza Italia party, which is both part of Meloni’s governing coalition and of von der Leyen’s political grouping in the European Parliament, downplayed the damage to Italy. 

“I don’t think there will be a negative impact considering the good relations between von der Leyen and Meloni, the central role of Forza Italia in the [European People’s Party] and Italy’s role as a founding member of the EU. For all these reasons I think Italy will remain central to the life of the EU,” he said. 

On an official visit to China this week, Giorgia Meloni tried to tamp down the tension. | Pedro Pardo/Getty Images

Others stressed that the relationship is at a turning point, and Meloni will have to decide which way it will go.

“We will see which Meloni will rise from this: the hard-right one we always feared or the pragmatic one which we have gotten to know?” said one EU diplomat, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly.