‘New Axis of influence’: Is an alliance between Russia and Iran possible?

The first meeting between Vladimir Putin and Masoud Pezeshkian marks new chapter in Moscow-Tehran relations

One of the highlights of the international forum 'The Interconnection of Times and Civilizations: The Basis of Peace and Development', held in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, was the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. This was the first meeting between the two leaders since Pezeshkian assumed office on July 30. Russian presidential advisor Yuri Ushakov told reporters that this event was important not only for discussing bilateral issues, “but also for addressing the rapidly escalating crisis in the Middle East.”

Initially, Putin’s first meeting with Pezeshkian was supposed to take place on October 22-24 at the BRICS summit in Kazan. Iran became a full member of the organization this year, and last month Pezeshkian accepted an invitation to attend the event. This means that the two leaders will meet again in the coming weeks. However, the conference in Ashgabat was also significant. Putin expressed his pleasure at meeting Pezeshkian personally and noted that Moscow and Tehran have similar views regarding many global issues. Iranian media noted that the meeting strengthened the ties between the two nations, despite Western efforts to thwart cooperation between Iran and Russia. 

Coincidentally (or not), a few hours after this meeting, it emerged that the EU will implement new sanctions against Iran due to Tehran’s supposed transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia. Despite the fact that both Moscow and Tehran repeatedly denied the use of Iranian weapons in the Ukraine conflict, and the EU failed to provide any evidence supporting these claims, Brussels moved forward with its decision to impose new sanctions on October 14. 

On the day of the meeting between Putin and Pezeshkian, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also announced new sanctions against 16 companies and 23 tanker vessels engaged in the Iranian petroleum trade. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan noted that the new sanctions are a response to Iran’s missile strikes against Israel.

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Apparently, the West has once again resorted to its familiar strategy of “you’re either with us or against us,” which implies imposing sanctions or launching a military intervention against countries that do not side with the US. Recognizing that a military intervention in Iran isn’t feasible right now, the West sees sanctions as the best alternative, despite the fact that Pezeshkian has repeatedly expressed a desire to negotiate with Europe and the US, hoping that they would opt for a more pragmatic and consistent policy. However, this does not imply that Pezeshkian and his administration harbor illusions about the West. 

On the contrary, Iran’s diplomacy, which has a 3,000-year history, has once again illustrated to the world how hypocritical and even weak the West can be. Iranian politicians and experts believe that the strategy of imposing sanctions against Iran, Russia, and China is a sign of weakness rather than strength, as the West fears acknowledging that in the current system of international relations, the time of US hegemony has come to an end. 

Despite the fact that the meeting between Putin and Pezeshkian lasted for about an hour and mostly served an introductory purpose, it was quite productive. The Russian leader invited the Iranian president to come to Moscow on an official visit, a proposal that Pezeshkian accepted. 

Following discussions with Putin, Pezeshkian said that Iran and Russia agreed to expedite several oil and gas projects. Pezeshkian emphasized the strategic and sincere nature of Iran-Russia relations, noting that cooperation in the cultural, economic, and social fields is constantly improving, and stressed the importance of maintaining this trend. He also observed that Iran and Russia have many partnership opportunities and should support one another, considering their similar positions on the international stage.

Pezeshkian highlighted Tehran’s commitment to finalizing bilateral agreements at the upcoming BRICS summit. He also described the situation in the Middle East as complex and noted that the US and other Western nations do not seem interested in de-escalating the crisis. 

Just a few weeks ago, many experts (especially Western ones) had negatively assessed the current state of Russia-Iran relations and believed that they were deteriorating. Some political observers even expressed the opinion that the cooperation between Russia and Iran is over since Pezeshkian is a reformist politician who has called for renewing contacts with the West and reviving the nuclear deal in exchange for lifting major sanctions on Tehran. However, former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who was considered a moderate conservative, had also urged the US and Europe to rejoin the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, also known as the Iran nuclear deal) and lift the sanctions. 

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At the time, Iranian diplomats engaged in negotiations with their Western counterparts on neutral territory, but these talks didn’t yield any results. However, this doesn’t necessarily indicate that a reformist president in Iran will favor the West over Russia or China, particularly since both Moscow and Beijing have repeatedly urged the US and EU to revive the nuclear deal and labeled sanctions against Iran as illegal. During his meeting with Putin, Pezeshkian said that Tehran could “significantly mitigate the negative impact of sanctions” by fulfilling all agreements with its neighbors, referring specifically to Russia and regional partners. 

Russia-Iran relations are currently undergoing a “reset” because of the new presidential administration in Tehran. This isn’t surprising, since when a new government comes to power in any country, there are always certain changes in communication and new approaches. Iran is no exception, and Pezeshkian has made it clear that Russia holds a special place for Iran and is a key partner. Iran is also committed to signing a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with Russia. Amid the current tensions in the Middle East, Iran wants to prevent a major escalation of the conflict that could draw the West into the war, which would complicate matters for Iran’s regional partners.

While Iran launched missile strikes against Israel, it does not want to trigger a full-scale war. Moscow has urged both sides to steer clear of a direct confrontation, and apparently, Tehran has taken this message to heart. Political analysts in Iran believe that the recent talks in Ashgabat could be a significant step towards establishing a new “axis of influence” that could oppose the West, since Moscow views Tehran as a strategic ally capable of stabilizing the situation in the region through diplomatic means. Tehran also believes that the joint efforts of Russia and Iran could create a new security framework and foster sustainable cooperation, which would influence both regional and global geopolitical processes. If Israel disregards the advice of the US and retaliates for the missile attacks, targeting Iran’s military, oil, and nuclear facilities, Tehran will not remain silent; but it does not want to create problems for its partners either.

Putin also addressed economic relations between Russia and Iran and noted positive trends in mutual trade. He acknowledged an increase in trade turnover this year, although it is still below 2022 indicators. The trade turnover between Russia and Iran fell by 17.3% in 2023, totaling $4 billion (2022 was a record year, with the trade turnover totaling $5 billion, while in 2021 this indicator was just $1.5 billion). However, Iranian goods continue to expand their presence in the Russian market. The situation is expected to improve significantly once Russia’s Mir payment system starts to operate in Iran (expected by January 2025). Following the meeting with Putin, Pezeshkian called cooperation between Russia and Iran constructive, and revealed agreements to expedite projects in gas, road and rail construction, water desalination, and other initiatives in the fields of energy, petrochemicals, and electricity supply.

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The meeting between the presidents of Russia and Iran was very important for the further strengthening of bilateral relations. It explored the potential for deeper strategic partnership, which may have considerable implications not only for the two countries but for the broader international community as well. It’s no secret that the US is alarmed by the growing cooperation between Russia and Iran. US Department of State spokesperson Matthew Miller recently stated that the US believes the growing ties between Iran and Russia destabilize not just the Middle East but the world at large. This remark came in response to comments made by Pezeshkian that Russia-Iran relations would continue to develop steadily and consistently. Indeed, cooperation between the two countries is gaining momentum. In September, several high-level Russian officials visited Tehran.

On September 17, Secretary of the Russian Security Council Sergey Shoigu visited Iran (which was his second trip to the country that month), and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin arrived in Iran on September 30; both officials met with Pezeshkian. Iranian Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi and Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Ahmadian have also recently visited Russia, and met with Putin. This high-level political dialogue creates new opportunities for comprehensive collaboration, especially considering the sanctions pressure that both countries are facing.

The meeting between Putin and Pezeshkian in Ashgabat effectively dispelled Western speculation about a deterioration in relations between the two countries. On the contrary, relations between Russia and Iran are entering a new chapter.