Nigel Farage comeback is Sunak’s worst nightmare

LONDON — In the space of an hour, Rishi Sunak’s fragile hopes for salvaging his party’s fortunes in the U.K. general election came crashing down around him. 

Nigel Farage, the Conservatives’ perennial nemesis, summoned journalists Monday for an “emergency” press conference at which he announced he was reversing his earlier pledge to stay out of the general election and would be standing for parliament after all. 

The decision threatens not just Sunak’s prospects in the election the prime minister called for July 4, but also the very survival of the Conservative Party, until now one of the most successful electoral vehicles in the world.

Farage revealed he would be standing in the constituency of Clacton in Essex on the east coast of England. He said he had experienced a change of heart the day before, when he “popped to the pub” to think the matter over and realized he felt a “terrible sense of guilt.”

He declared that “nothing works” in Britain and that it was up to him to lead a “political revolt.” He also announced he would take over from Richard Tice as leader of their upstart Brexiteer party, Reform UK, for the next five years.

Reform is the successor to Farage’s previous electoral vehicle, the Brexit Party, which stood aside in hundreds of seats in the 2019 election to aid the Conservatives, then led by the Euroskeptic Boris Johnson.

His decision to take a different approach to Sunak’s Conservatives is the prime minister’s worst nightmare.

Bombshell announcement

Farage’s stunning decision landed between two major polls showing the Conservatives taking a huge hit in the upcoming election. 

A poll of 50,000 people by YouGov found Labour on course for a bigger win than Tony Blair achieved in 1997, with the party forecast to bag 422 seats in the U.K’s 650-seat parliament, reducing the Conservatives to a rump of 140 seats. A second More in Common poll of 15,000 voters forecast a Labour majority of 114, with the Conservatives sinking to 180. 

While Farage’s focus on Brexit attracted voters from both the left and the right, a revamped Reform party is far more of a headache for the Conservatives than for Labour.

The Tories’ current dire position in the polls owes partly to the number of voters they have lost to Reform UK. In YouGov’s latest voting intention survey, 21 percent of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they now intend to vote for Reform, compared to 3 percent of Labour voters.

Farage remains a highly divisive figure, but still holds great personal sway with his fans and attracts a media circus wherever he goes.

The decision threatens not just Sunak’s prospects in the election the prime minister called for July 4, but also the very survival of the Conservative Party. | Pool Photo by Carl Court via Getty Images

Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, noted that their survey was performed before Farage’s intervention, and that given the number of seats the Tories were predicted to hold narrowly, “I think it is fair to say his decision poses an existential risk to the Tory Party.”

Farage said the Tories were on “the verge of collapse.”

His change of heart was certainly the outcome No. 10 and Conservatives around the country had most been dreading. 

They had been relieved when, 10 days ago, Farage indicated he would not be standing as he preferred to focus on campaigning for his friend Donald Trump in the U.S. election.

Reform UK has struggled to break through in recent local polls and by-elections, and many had predicted that without its best-known face, it would remain largely a side-show. 

Booster shot

Farage’s entry into the race will be a shot of adrenalin for his party, giving the operation a new momentum that is likely to hurt Conservative rivals the most. 

The new party leader insisted Reform would win seats, even though his previous attempts to be elected to Westminster ended in failure. However, a Reform aide, granted anonymity to speak frankly, admitted to POLITICO that the party was more likely to “pile votes high” without winning seats.

One senior MP on the right of Sunak’s Tory party said the Brexiteer’s entry into the fray could only be “bad news for the Conservatives — Farage is a serious political figure and will attract votes from the disaffected right of the party.”

James Frayne, director of polling consultancy Public First and a former Conservative adviser, said: “There’s no getting away from it, Farage standing is a disaster for Rishi Sunak.”

He predicted the development could “have a significant impact in many dozens of seats by depressing the Tory vote enough to cost them victory,” while putting the Tories on the defensive on issues they wanted to unleash on Labour.

With the two largest parties locked in close combat on the economy, Sunak had been expected to attack Labour on immigration, crime and culture wars, but is now himself likely to be hounded by Reform on all these issues. 

A Conservative Party spokesman said in response to Farage’s announcement that “[he] knows Reform won’t win any seats, but he doesn’t seem to care that a vote for Reform only helps Labour.”