Opinion: US Election: Trump Or Harris? Bigger Surprises Are In The Offing

As we navigate through the complexities of the U.S. presidential election, let's start with some basic facts and figures. Around 245 million U.S. citizens are eligible to vote, but between 160 and 165 million are expected to have cast their ballots when voting ends today.

The election hinges on a majority in the Electoral College, which totals 538 votes. This includes one electoral vote for each of the 435 seats in the House, 100 seats in the Senate, and three votes for Washington DC. Each state's electoral votes go to the candidate who wins the popular vote in that state.

Of the 50 states, 43 are reliably Republican or Democratic. The outcome will be determined by seven swing states with a combined total of 93 electoral votes: Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15), and Wisconsin (10) in the Midwest, and Georgia (16), North Carolina (16), Arizona (11), and Nevada (6) in the Sun Belt.

Many Liked America Under Trump

Had Biden stayed on the Democratic ticket, Donald Trump would likely have swept the election. Even with Kamala Harris making this one of the closest presidential races in the past 50 years, the election is Trump's to lose. A prominent political scientist summed it up: "The fundamentals the Biden-Harris administration's low approval ratings in every policy domain, large majorities believing the economy is poor or only fair, the reality of higher prices for necessities favour Republicans this year."

The New York Times, which has consistently opposed Trump editorially, has been following a focus group for the last two years. In its final summary, the paper has noted: "A main takeaway from our groups is that a cross-section of independents, Republicans and Democrats liked how America was under Mr. Trump they liked the economy, the perception of relative global stability, the restraint of divided government and the image that this outsider businessman was not beholden to Washington insiders, lobbyists and big money (the unholy trio of turpitude for many of our participants)." For The Economist, Trump makes a lot of American "being seen".

Polling analyst Nate Silver, whose "gut" leans towards a Trump victory, recently listed 24 factors in Trump's favour. These include a 2% Electoral College advantage for Republicans, a 20% rise in prices since 2020, stagnant or modest wage growth, nearly 5 million illegal border crossings between 2021 and 2023, Kamala Harris's left-leaning stances on fracking and immigration, and the "feminisation" of the US political landscape, which has consolidated Trump's appeal among non-college-educated white men and attracted more Black and Latino men.

'Awful, Terrifying, Stomach-Turning'

In the 2016 campaign, Trump famously claimed, "I could stand in the middle of (New York's) Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and not lose any voters." Eight years, a Capitol Hill riot, and over 30 felony indictments later, his popularity is at an all-time high.

Trump's campaign strategy has been laser-focused on energising his base. As writer Tom Nichols noted, "Trump supporters love him because he is as uninhibited as he is. They want Trump to be awful, terrifying, and stomach-turning, so that reelecting him will be a fully realised act of social revenge."

As the campaign has progressed, Trump's rhetoric has become darker, casting anyone who opposes him as an "enemy within". He has blamed illegal immigrants for America's economic and social challenges. Recently, he said, "This is the final battle. With you at my side, we will demolish the deep state... and we will liberate America from these villains once and for all."

Despite Trump's strong appeal to his base, he appears to be capped at 48% in support due to lingering concerns about his honesty, criminal trials, and the chaos that surrounds him. Even among some Trump-leaning voters, doubts persist about his reliability and mental fitness. "I don't trust Kamala with our national security or with our economy. But I don't know if I trust Trump to be a normal person for the next three months," Lillian, a 27-year-old Virginian who voted for Trump in 2020 but is now undecided, told the NYT.

Demography Behind Tight Race

Another reason for the close race is demographics. Broadly, the electorate is 67% white, 13% Latino, 12% Black, and 5% Asian. While Trump's focus is largely on voters over 60 and those without a college degree, strong support from whom led to his 2016 victory, he has also targeted young voters across racial lines. Early in the campaign, he identified young, undecided voters in swing states, who make up 11% of the electorate, as key to victory.

A recent Harvard Youth Poll supports this strategy: compared to four years ago, 7% fewer voters under 30 identify as Democrats, while an equal percentage now consider themselves Republicans. Among Gen Z men, three in four describe their future as "bleak". "unclear" or "scary". Additionally, twice as many young men are single, less likely to attend college, and less likely to participate in the workforce, with higher suicide rates.

In his campaign, Trump has leaned heavily into what's commonly called "bro culture" by prioritising media appearances with favoured podcast hoststhe preferred medium of his younger audience. He spent three hours with top podcaster Joe Rogan, an actor and comedian popular among the young, chatting about football and other topics relevant to this largely apolitical crowd.

Trump has made his biggest gains among young Black and Hispanic votersespecially young Black and Hispanic menwho align with his conservative views, according to The New York Times Chief Political Analyst, Nate Cohn. About 40% of Black voters and 43% of Hispanic voters say they support building a wall along the southern border. Similarly, 45% of Hispanic voters and 41% of Black voters favour deporting undocumented immigrants. Among Hispanic men under 45, Trump holds a 55-38 lead, with even stronger support among Hispanic and Black men aged 18-29, Cohn notes.

After a turbulent 14-week campaign, Kamala Harris's biggest challenge remains that voters still don't feel they know her well. She has largely avoided specifics, often giving scripted responses to probing questions on her shifting views on immigration, healthcare, and green energy.

Her core message from the Democratic Convention remains this: She is committed to all Americans, whether they vote for her or not, putting country over self, promoting non-ideological solutions, and serving as a unifier. Her rallying cry has been, "We are not going back." Critics, however, have summarised this as simply, "I am not Trump."

Though The Economist endorsed her in its latest issue, it labelled her an "underwhelming machine politician". Harris also faces the drag of Biden's deep unpopularity, which she did little to ease when she responded, "I couldn't think of one thing," when asked if she would have done anything differently than Biden.

Harris's Reliance On Women

Still, Harris's campaign strategy may yet prove decisive. She has focused heavily on women, particularly white women, who make up 30% of the electorate and are the largest single demographic. Though white women lean Republican (53%) versus Democratic (43%), they are less divided than white men. Crucially, they are more likely to vote, unlike younger men.

Younger white women, motivated to defend reproductive rights, have been a driving force for Harris. In 2020, Trump received 53% of the white female vote, up from 47% in 2016. But the latest New York Times/Siena poll shows Harris and Trump are now in dead heat, with Harris pulling slightly ahead. The Times also noted that her campaign has targeted women without college degrees, who often lean Republican for economic reasons but may be persuaded by Harris's focus on the so-called "care economy" and policies supporting parents and caregivers.

According to a recent ABC News/Ipsos national poll, Trump trails Harris among likely female voters by 14 pointsa gap far greater than his 6-point lead among men. The gender divide among younger voters is even starker: Across three Times/Siena polls this fall, Trump leads Harris among young men by 21 points, while Harris leads Trump among young women by nearly 40 points.

Another advantage for Harris is her campaign's stronger focus on voter turnout. Harris's team has outspent Trump's by a 3:1 ratio, with significant investments in staffers and volunteers for door-to-door canvassing and phone calls. In swing states, her 2,500 staffers across 353 offices have knocked on over 6,00,000 doors and made more than three million calls through 63,000 volunteer shifts.

Kamala, The "Underdog"

Early in the race, Harris told supporters, "This is a margin-of-error race. We are the underdog, and I am running like the underdog because I am the underdog in this race." As Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg put it: "The Harris coalition rests on the most reliable voters (older, college-educated). Trump needs every single low-propensity less educated young person to come out and vote for him."

Pollsters agree that this race is too close to call, with slim leads in the swing states well within the margin of error. In this seemingly static field, a major surprise emerged on Friday when Iowa's Des Moines Register published a poll by respected pollster Ann Selzer showing Harris leading Trump by four points.

Iowa isn't a swing state; Republicans have traditionally dominated there. But Selzer's poll suggests that Harris has boosted the Democratic vote by 22% from when Biden was the candidate, driven primarily by support from women on abortion and reproductive rights. Her poll also showed strong support for Harris on these issues among young women and even those aged 65 and older.
Reluctantly, and very late in the game, pollsters are beginning to confront the possibility that this election might defy expectations. A new scenario has emerged: that a single electoral vote from Nebraska could clinch the win for Harris.

Nebraska, which has voted Republican in the last 14 elections, decided in the 1990s to split its electoral votes by congressional districts. If its most populous county, Douglas, votes Democratic, as expected, it could deliver Harris the crucial 270th electoral vote in the event of a tie. This election could well come down to the wire.

(Ajay Kumar is a senior journalist. He is the former Managing Editor, Business Standard, and former Executive Editor, Economic Times.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author