Orbán parrots Putin’s lines on Ukraine in leaked letter to EU chief

Dmitry Peskov out, Viktor Orbán in?

In a leaked letter seen Tuesday by POLITICO, the Hungarian prime minister underlined Russian President Vladimir Putin’s maximalist position on Ukraine so thoroughly he could have been auditioning for the role of Kremlin spokesperson.

The missive, addressed to European Council President Charles Michel and shared with other members of the European Council, lays out Putin’s thinking about the status of his war in Ukraine — and what Orbán reckons the EU’s next steps should be.

It caps a week of manic diplomacy, during which Orbán visited Kyiv, then Moscow, and then Beijing, on a self-described Ukraine “peace mission” days after Hungary assumed command of the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU.

Orbán told Michel that, according to Putin, “time is not on the side of Ukraine, but on the side of the Russian forces,” without providing evidence for the battlefield analysis.

The letter, dated July 5 and broken down into nine points, also makes no reference to the fact that Putin was the one who launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

In Viktor Orbán’s account of the meeting, he says he observed to Vladimir Putin that “many argue that it is in the interest of Europe to return to a period of economic growth based on lasting peace as soon as possible.” | Alexander Nemenov/AFP via Getty Images

Orbán — who denied he was articulating “any opinion on behalf of the European Council or the European Union” during his Moscow visit — went on to say that “the Russian side estimates the monthly losses and casualties of the Ukrainian forces at 40-50 thousand soldiers,” while making no reference to Russian losses in the war.

He added that Moscow was “ready to consider any ceasefire proposal that does not serve the hidden relocation and reorganization of Ukrainian forces,” without explaining further what Putin meant by that.

In Orbán’s account of the meeting, he says he observed to Putin that “many argue that it is in the interest of Europe to return to a period of economic growth based on lasting peace as soon as possible,” adding: “The chance for peace is diminished by the fact that diplomatic channels are blocked and there is no direct dialogue between the parties who have a leading role to play in creating the conditions for peace.”

The EU and its leaders have largely shut down communications with Moscow amid a deluge of sanctions leveled by the bloc against Russia following the invasion.

On Wednesday EU ambassadors in Brussels will discuss Orbán’s trips. “If that debrief tomorrow goes in the same tone as this letter, it will be a pleasant meeting,” a sarcastic EU diplomat, who was granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive subject, told POLITICO. “Nothing, but nothing of all the European Council’s efforts over the past 2.5 years is reflected in this.”

Orbán wrote, in point eight, that he believed a cease-fire and peace talks were still possible, but added that “in the next two months we will see more dramatic losses and military developments on the frontlines than ever before” if the war doesn’t come to a halt.

He then concluded that Europe should take the lead on trying to thrash out peace in Ukraine, given that the U.S. is increasingly distracted as its November presidential election approaches.

“Political leadership provided by the United States is limited, due to the ongoing election campaign,” Orbán wrote. “Therefore we can expect no such proposal coming from the U.S. in the coming months. We should consider — in the spirit of European strategic autonomy — launching a European initiative.”

Orbán’s mission, at least in terms of ending the war, is unlikely to succeed. On Monday, after Russian forces bombed a children’s hospital in Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy trashed his attempt at interlocution with the Kremlin.

That won’t likely deter the Hungarian leader, however.

Orbán signed off the note: “I will continue my talks aimed at clarifying the opportunities for peace next week.”