Poland’s PiS ahead in local elections, but not in political control

WARSAW — Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party bounced back from its October defeat in the national election to take first place in the country’s regional vote, according to an exit poll published after the polls closed at 9 p.m.

However, the outcome means that the liberal-left coalition of Prime Minister Donald Tusk will still run the show in most of Poland’s 16 regions; the number will be clearer once vote totals are released. PiS currently rules in six regions.

PiS took 33.7 percent, with Tusk’s Civic Coalition closely behind at 31.9 percent, according to the survey conducted by the IPSOS organization.

The Third Way, a center-right grouping that forms part of Tusk’s ruling coalition, won 13.5 per cent of the vote, ahead of the far-right opposition Confederation party with 7.5 percent. The Left, which is also part of Tusk’s coalition, only managed a disappointing 6.5 percent.

Turnout was 51.5 percent compared to 54.9 percent during the previous local election in 2018. October’s parliamentary election — where the stakes were much higher — saw a 74.4 percent turnout.

Both top groupings sought to spin the outcome in their favor.

Leaders of the Third Way coalition, Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz and Szymon Holownia. | Pawel Supernak/EPA-EFE

A radiant PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński trumpeted the result as a victory which “should, above all, be an incentive for us to work, because it turns out that those who wanted to bury us already, as Mark Twain once said: ‘The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.'”

“We now need to win the EU election and the presidential election before we try to win the next general election,” Kaczyński added.

However, the final result is likely to be disappointing for PiS.

Poland’s TVN television estimated that Civic Platform won in 10 regions, up from seven in 2018, and PiS was in the lead in six. However, other parties making up the incumbent ruling coalition are likely to have won enough regional seats to be able to control most regional assemblies, which are key bodies for managing tens of billions in EU funds. The official regional results are due Tuesday.

Tusk called the outcome a repeat of the October election that removed PiS from power, but then added: “Today we see that this road will not be easy, including in the future.”

Tusk pointed to the victory of Rafał Traskowski, who romped to a first round win with 59.8 percent support in a bid to be reelected mayor of Warsaw. Trzaskowski was the Civic Coalition’s presidential candidate in 2020, and is seen at the party’s likeliest candidate to run again next year.

PiS tends to do worse in the country’s large cities, which lean liberal. In Warsaw, its candidate Tobiasz Bocheński came in a distant second with 18.5 percent. PiS fared similarly poorly in other key cities of Kraków, Wrocław, and Gdańsk.

Sunday’s vote was the second election in six months. Poles are now preparing for June’s European election and the presidential vote in 2025.