Poland warns Europe to prepare for ‘change’ in US ties, regardless of next president

Poland’s foreign minister has warned European allies they need to prepare for a “change” in the transatlantic relationship and start spending more on defense — no matter who’s elected U.S. president in November.

In comments shared exclusively with POLITICO, Radek Sikorski said he believed that the United States would remain a “strategic partner” for the European Union regardless of who wins the U.S. presidential race.

But European countries have “no other choice” than to take on more responsibility for their collective defense given that Washington will continue to “keep a close eye on Asia.”

“It is our job to explain to our U.S. partners that as long as we are feeling Russia’s threat, we won’t be able to engage fully there,” he said referring to Asia, where European countries have far fewer forces deployed than the United States. 

The comments from Sikorski, which were made after U.S. President Joe Biden announced he’s withdrawing from the presidential race, underscore growing concern among Washington’s European allies that the U.S. may significantly downgrade its investment into NATO, especially if former President Donald Trump and his isolationist running mate, JD Vance, are elected to the White House in November.

While Europe is more nervous about Trump’s potential return, diplomats from several EU countries argue that the pivot toward Asia is a deeper trend in U.S. foreign policy and has been ongoing under Democrat as well as Republican presidents.

In addition to his comments to POLITICO, Sikorski’s office has prepared a five-page document taking stock of the transatlantic relationship, which he presented to other EU foreign ministers during a gathering in Brussels on Monday.

The detailed paper urges EU and national leaders to rapidly adapt their behavior to the coming shift, but also to work collectively to dispel negative perceptions about the transatlantic relationship that have taken hold, most prominently on the Republican side.

The comments from Sikorski were made after U.S. President Joe Biden announced he’s withdrawing from the presidential race. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Among other issues, EU leaders and officials need to address perceptions — correct or incorrect — that America is being taken advantage of by its trading partners, including the European Union. While the EU remains the United States’ top global trading partner, a widening U.S. deficit in the trade of goods with Europe is feeding into this narrative. 

Elites on both sides of the Atlantic need to “learn how to talk” with the public about why the EU-U.S. relationship is mutually beneficial in both economic and strategic terms, the paper states.

Another focus is Russian misinformation and propaganda, which is ramping up ahead of the presidential vote in November and which aims to undermine U.S. support for the war in Ukraine.

“If Moscow can encourage isolationist tendencies among Americans, persuade them the United States has no real interests worth fighting for in Europe, and motivate them to oppose military assistance to Ukraine,” the paper warns, “then the Kremlin could win not only a military war in Ukraine but a hybrid one all across the West.”

Pointing out differences in perceptions of Russia between younger and older Americans, the paper also urges policymakers to fine-tune their arguments to a younger audience unfamiliar with the Soviet Union.

Finally, the Polish paper urges EU institutions and their antennae in the United States to ramp up “strategic communication” targeting Washington policymakers and hammer home the idea that the U.S. benefits from alliance with European countries.