Polymarket Predicts: 89% Probability of SEC Approving Bitcoin ETF January 15th

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Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a topic discussed by the whole crypto industry, and traders seem confident that the SEC might approve this in the coming weeks. We are witnessing this hype, which let Bitcoin surge nearly above $45,264.

Now, let’s talk about Polymarket’s trading platform, which is a decentralized prediction market platform that authorizes users to place bets on world events. Traders on the platform are confident that at least one spot Bitcoin ETF will receive approval from the SEC by January 15. This confidence among the traders and investors led to a substantial surge in Bitcoin’s price.

Approval Probability

According to Polymarket, traders currently see a high chance of 89% that the SEC will approve one or more spot Bitcoin ETFs. This probability has increased significantly from around 50% a month ago. Traders have already bet $437,394 on a prediction contract. 

The SEC could notify the current 14 spot Bitcoin ETF applicants as early as Tuesday or Wednesday of its decision to approve launching ETFs in the following weeks. This decision could bring billions of dollars in investors’ capital to the cryptocurrency market.

Hedging Strategies by Traders

Some traders have also purchased shares of the no side of the predictions contract to hedge against potential delays in the SEC’s approval process. These traders believe that Bitcoin’s price may plummet if the SEC postpones or denies approval for spot Bitcoin ETFs. 

According to the Deribit data Bloomberg reported, the strike prices on the put contracts with the most open interest were $44,000, $42,000, and $40,000, respectively, and Bitcoin was trading at $43,500 at the time of writing. That means put holders would be able to exercise the options and minimize losses if the cryptocurrency reacted negatively to the imminent decision by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

This craze for Bitcoin ETF among investors and traders is justified, as the whole industry has been waiting for the SEC to approve these 14 applications for a long. Now, it remains to be seen whether this hype is ending soon or whether the SEC might delay it because of time issues.