Polymarket’s 2024 Election Frenzy: Big Wins for a Few, Losses for Most

Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, gained attention this election season for record-breaking trading volumes. With monthly trading near $2.5 billion in October and another $1.2 billion in November, a handful of savvy users walked away with substantial profits from Polymarket election betting. However, data reveals that most Polymarket users lost, reflecting the inherent risk and volatility in prediction markets.

A Platform for Betting on Current Events

Polymarket’s popularity skyrocketed in 2024 as users wagered on various cultural and political questions. From predicting election outcomes to guessing the next actor for James Bond, the platform has become a hub for public speculation. Media outlets increasingly quoted Polymarket as a viable alternative to traditional polling, especially as election night approached. According to Polymarket’s founder, Shayne Coplan, the platform provided a “real-time reflection” of public sentiment, with Trump consistently leading on Polymarket, even as some polls leaned toward Harris. Polymarket election betting showed a clear trend during this period.

The Odds Aren’t in Most Users’ Favor

Polymarket data suggests that despite the platform’s rapid growth, around 89% of users have posted losses. Analysis by Dune dashboards and LayerHub indicates that many users faced negative returns, with many of these bettors either betting incorrectly or cashing out at a loss. Wallet data from LayerHub shows that nearly 237,000 371,000 unique accounts have realized losses under $100. In contrast, only a little over 1% of wallets on the platform reported gains exceeding $1,000. Polymarket election betting can, therefore, be seen as a high-risk endeavor for most participants.

The average bet size further illustrates this trend: wagers between $100 and $500 made up about 28% of all bets, while those below $10 were at 18%. This shows that while most bets were modest, the losses added up for many users.

source: Twitter

High-Stakes Wins and Token Farming Tactics

The story was markedly different for a small group of “whales” on Polymarket. Some accounts, like the high-profile user “Theo4,” profited millions by betting on Trump’s electoral success. With $45 million in wagers, Theo4 reportedly made $47 million in profits through Polymarket election betting, although subsequent research by Chainalysis suggests the figure could be as high as $78.7 million across multiple accounts.

Polymarket’s data also reveals a trend of “volume farming” by users speculating on a potential token airdrop. This practice involves repeatedly trading to inflate transaction volume, which can result in slight losses over time. However, for many, these small losses are an acceptable trade-off in the hope of securing future rewards.

Regulatory Concerns and the Future of Polymarket

Polymarket’s success has not gone unnoticed by regulators. France’s National Gaming Authority (ANJ) recently launched an investigation into Polymarket’s operations, exploring whether its betting practices align with French gambling laws. While the platform’s structure is designed to avoid categorization as a gambling site, the sheer scale of wagering and high-profile wins, like those of French national Theo4, have sparked scrutiny. Regulatory concerns may impact the future of Polymarket and its Polymarket election betting activities.

As regulatory bodies worldwide consider the legality and ethical implications of prediction markets, Polymarket’s user trends provide insight into the volatile nature of such platforms. While they offer exciting opportunities for some, the data underscores the risks for average users who may lack the expertise—or luck—to win big in this high-stakes environment.

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