Predicting Bitcoin’s Bull Run: Impact of ETFs and Halving Events

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A prominent figure in crypto, PlanB, known for the Stock-2-Flow model, forecasts a significant surge in Bitcoin’s value. With a strong track record for accurate predictions, PlanB asserts that Bitcoin won’t dip below $25,000 or $35000, and soon it will attain a new ATH. This forecast carries weight due to PlanB’s reputation as a reliable predictor in the crypto world.

Connecting the Halving Dots

In a recent ask-me-anything (AMA) session, renowned on-chain analyst PlanB shared insights suggesting that the approval of spot market Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could catalyze Bitcoin (BTC) to reach unprecedented highs, possibly surpassing its previous all-time peak, before the scheduled halving event in April 2024.

Speaking to his YouTube followers, PlanB outlined an optimistic scenario. He believes that if spot market ETFs are greenlit before the anticipated halving in April 2024 – a historic event that halves BTC miners’ rewards – Bitcoin might skyrocket to a new all-time high, potentially hitting the $69,000 mark within the next four months. This projection indicates a remarkable 50% surge from the current price.

BTC Price To Hit $100K, If This Happens…

Expressing confidence in this forecast, PlanB even hints at a possible surge straight to $100,000 if the ETF is approved by January. He underlines the significance of this ETF approval, anticipating a bullish trajectory for Bitcoin. He has time and again explored the dynamics between Bitcoin miners and users buying on exchanges.

He anticipates this arbitrage growing, particularly with the upcoming ETF launch. The ETF’s Jan arrival might elevate this process, allowing miners to potentially command higher prices. While previously, Cathie Wood of Ark Invest also shared this optimism, predicting a Bitcoin ETF approval could propel its value beyond $600,000, echoing bullish sentiments. 

Calculating ETF Risk and Gains, Can BTC Fall Below 25K?

With all the excitement, analysts are evaluating the risk of denying ETFs. The short-term bearish scenario? Will BTC bloodbath? But surprisingly, PlanB remains bullish, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price won’t dip below $25,000 unless an unforeseen major event occurs, comparable to the unprecedented impact of the COVID crisis during the last halving in 2020. Hence he is sure that historically halving is a bullish event for Bitcoin since it slashes Bitcoin miners’ rewards in half. 

While acknowledging the potential for unexpected market-moving events, commonly termed “black swans,” PlanB doesn’t currently foresee any looming risks that could significantly disrupt Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.

He maintains his confidence in Bitcoin’s trajectory towards the next bull market, indicating that levels below $35,000 would be surprising and emphasizing Bitcoin’s current trading value at $40,933.

PlanB’s projections offer a positive outlook for Bitcoin’s future performance, highlighting the potential impact of ETF approvals and the upcoming halving event in shaping the cryptocurrency’s trajectory.