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VLADIMIR Putin is sticking eerily close to what was believed to be his 10-step plan to drag Nato into war with Russia.
A military report leaked last month detailed the Russian tyrant’s possible “path to conflict” – beginning this month and ending in 2025.
AFP
AP
AFPThe secret documents, obtained by Bild from Germany‘s Ministry of Defence, laid out how Europe is preparing for the Kremlin boss to expand his country’s war in Ukraine and attack Nato troops next year.
It defined potential scenarios which could unfold in the next two years, beginning this February with Putin mobilising more soldiers.
Here is Putin’s possible 10-step plan to bring the West to the brink of World War Three, and how the president is currently tracking:
1. Feb 2024 – Russia mobilises 200,000 men
Putin’s supposed campaign was to begin this month with a fresh mobilisation of 200,000 men.
It was believed the president may order a second mobilisation to bolster his army, depleted after two years of grinding war in Ukraine.
While this has not yet come to fruition, the current rate of Russian losses – estimated by Ukraine to be about 400,000 – means another round of mobilisation could be on the cards.
Ukraine has lost 31,000 troops in the war, according to figures provided by Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sunday.
Some believe a second mobilisation wave is even more likely to occur after the presidential elections in March – ahead of a spring offensive.
2. May 2024 – Putin launches new spring offensive
The Kremlin, according to the plan classified “For Official Use Only”, will launch a fresh offensive across Ukraine in spring – when Western financial support for Kyiv is expected to start drying up.
Zelenskyy warned on Sunday that Russia is indeed preparing a new offensive against Ukraine to start in late May or early summer.
He told reporters in Kyiv: “There is a plan [for a new counteroffensive], the plan is clear, I can’t tell you the details.
“This plan is related to the change of management, there are corresponding changes.”
The potential scenario suggests Russia intends to chip away at Ukraine’s armed forces, bit by bit, until it achieves victory.
3. July 2024 – attacks on the West begin
The next step in the plan involved an initially covert and later open attack on the West using cyber and hybrid warfare strategies.
Such attacks would be intended to incite Russian ethnic minorities to start conflicts in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
UK defence chief Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said yesterday during the annual Chatham House Security and Defence Conference that Britain is facing attacks in the cyber domain “every day”.
He explained: “We are safe because we are part of Nato, the world’s largest and strongest alliance and also because we are a responsible nuclear power.
“That doesn’t mean that we couldn’t face attacks. We already do every day in the cyber domain. We could have random attacks in space, on underwater cables, and attempted violations of our air and maritime sovereignty.
“The most likely protagonist is Russia. We have been clear about that.”
Admiral Radakin added that the “dilemma for Russia is huge”, as “any Russian assault or incursion against Nato would prompt an overwhelming response”.
We already do [face attacks] every day in the cyber domain
Admiral Sir Tony RadakinThe world must now wait to see how the rest of Putin’s “plan” unfolds.
4. Sep 2024 – troop build-up in east
Europe expected Moscow to focus in September on building its troop strength in Belarus – much like the Kremlin did in 2021 ahead of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
This would happen under the cover of a large-scale “military exercise” known as Zapad 2024, which would have potentially been launched by Russia using the excuse of “severe cyberattacks”.
Some 50,000 troops would be stationed at the Russian puppet state’s border with the Nato states of Poland and Lithuania.
5. Oct 2024 – secret plan for Suwalki Gap
Europe reportedly believes Putin might move his troops and mid-range missiles to Kaliningrad, Russia’s most westerly territory, in October.
The Baltic sea enclave, wedged between Poland to the south and Lithuania to the north and east, is used as a headquarters for Russia’s Baltic fleet and some of its most powerful armaments.
According to the report leaked last month, Russia could flood the region with propaganda warning of an imminent attack on Nato.
But it would supposedly be the secret goal of the Kremlin to invade and conquer the Suwalki Gap, a narrow Polish-Lithuanian corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad.
The Suwalki Gap is the only land link to the three ex-Soviet Baltic republics: Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
If the West loses control of the republics and Putin moves in, Moscow might gain a land link to Kaliningrad from Belarus.
6. Dec 2024 – destabilise Baltics
The Kremlin might stir trouble at the end of the year by creating “border conflicts” and deadly “riots” across the Baltics, with hopes to destablise the smaller Nato states.
If US President Joe Biden is defeated in the elections, the US could potentially be leaderless and distracted from foreign affairs at this time.
7. March 2025 – lies of war
Europe, according to the leaked documents, expects Russia will then use a UN Security Council meeting to accuse the West of preparing to attack Russia, helping form the impetus for moving further troops and weapons into Belarus.
Moscow would then have two tank divisions, a mechanised infantry division and a division headquarters stationed close to Nato’s borders with more than 70,000 soldiers.
8. May 2025 – Nato responds
Two months later, the plan stated Nato will decide on “measures for credible deterrence” to prevent a possible attack on the Suwalki Gap.
Over 200,000 soldiers stationed in Belarus and Kaliningrad would be ready to be launched.
9. Summer 2025 – ‘Day X’
On the mysteriously-named “Day X”, which falls sometime in summer next year, Nato will supposedly send 300,000 troops to its eastern flank, countering the growing threat posed by Russia.
10. Thirty days later – ‘WW3’
According to the report, Putin’s “path to conflict” plan ends exactly 30 days later with a military stand-off.
Over 500,000 Russian and Nato troops will face each other at the Suwalki Gap – bringing the world to the edge of World War Three.
A German Ministry of Defence spokesperson told Bild they did not want to comment on the specific alliance defence scenario, called Alliance Defence 2025.
The spokesperson said: “Basically, I can tell you that considering different scenarios, even if they are extremely unlikely, is part of everyday military business, especially in training.”
This week
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico – a pro-Russia populist – this week warned that some Western nations were preparing to put boots on the ground in Ukraine on a “bilateral basis”.
Fico, who offered no evidence to support his claims and has so far opposed military aid to Ukraine, was speaking ahead of a meeting of European leaders in Paris.
He said: “I will limit myself to say that these topics (in preparation for the meeting) imply a number of Nato and EU member states are considering that they will send their troops to Ukraine on a bilateral basis.
“I cannot say for what purpose and what they should be doing there.”
Reuters
The Sun
A graphic showing the Suwalki Gap that could be the main battleground between Nato and Russia in 2025
AFP - Getty
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