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VLADIMIR Putin will demand Ukraine’s “full capitulation” in any peace deal brokered by Donald Trump, experts said today.
Trump will take over as US president in January having promised to end the Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking charge.
AP
Alamy
AFP
But analysts from the Institute for the Study of War say bullish Putin is already dictating hardline terms for a deal as his forces continue to gain ground.
The group said: “The manner in which the Kremlin is trying to set its terms for negotiations strongly signals that Russia‘s objectives remain unchanged and still amount to full Ukrainian capitulation.
“The Kremlin does not appear any more willing to make concessions to the incoming Trump administration than it was to the current administration.”
Embattled Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky – who has vowed not to hand over an inch to tyrant Putin – looks likely to give ground in return for security guarantees.
And he could be ousted in a humiliating blow to the West if his original pledge to his people is broken in a deal which ends the bloody 32-month conflict.
Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned ominously that no peace talks will be held until the West stops giving Ukraine weapons.
And Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov also claimed that the start of Trump’s presidency would change little – and shunned suggestions that current frontlines could be frozen.
Peace terms speculated so far include a freeze on the frontlines and a deal to end the war if Ukraine agrees never to join the NATO western alliance.
The war think tank’s analysts concluded: “Lavrov’s pre-emptive rejection of the potential suggestion to freeze the current frontline indicates that Russia is not interested in softening its approach.
“Zakharova’s and Lavrov’s statements also undermine Putin’s recent efforts to feign interest in a willingness to ‘restore’ US–Russian relations with the new US president.
“Putin likely is taking for granted that the Trump administration will defer to the Kremlin’s interests and preferences without the Kremlin offering any concessions in return.”
Ukraine’s defences have crumbled amid fierce tank battles in recent days as Russia claims to have grabbed more eastern territory.
Roman Kostenko, the chairman of the Ukraine’s Defence and Intelligence Committee, conceded yesterday: “Talks should be based on guarantees – for Ukraine, nothing is more important.”
Analysts also fear any deal seen as a victory for Russia will signal Western weakness and open the door to a Chinese move to take back Taiwan in a move which could trigger World war III.
EPA
EPA
English (US)