Sánchez on the edge: Will Spain’s prime minister resign?

It’s the announcement all of Spain — and much of Europe — is waiting for with bated breath: Is Pedro Sánchez willing to remain his country’s prime minister, or is he calling it quits and voluntarily ushering in a new period of political instability in the EU’s fifth-largest economy?

That’s the mystery set to be solved on Monday. In a bombshell letter published on X last Wednesday, Sánchez said that repeated right-wing attacks on his family had led him to wonder if governing Spain justified exposing his loved ones to constant abuse.

“Should I continue to lead this government or renounce this highest of honors?” the prime minister wrote. “I urgently need to answer a question that I keep asking myself: Is it worth it for me to remain [in office] in spite of the right and far-right’s mudslinging?”

Sánchez has spent the past five days secluded, meditating on his future. Supporters and opponents alike now await a decision that has the potential to radically alter Spain’s political landscape and significantly impact the distribution of the EU’s top jobs after June’s European Parliament election.

¡Quédate, Pedro!

Sánchez’s announcement last Wednesday was motivated by news that a Madrid judge had launched a preliminary corruption and influence-peddling investigation focused on Begoña Gómez, the prime minister’s wife. The probe was initiated in response to a lawsuit filed by Manos Limpias — or “Clean Hands” — a group with links to the far right that regularly uses the courts to target people or groups linked to progressive causes.

The suit appears to be baseless: Prosecutors last week recommended the criminal complaint be dismissed, and even Manos Limpias admits its suit may be based on “fake news.” But the judiciary’s decision to launch the preliminary investigation into Gómez despite the flimsiness of the evidence against her appears to have been too much for Sánchez.

Sánchez’s exit would also likely have an impact on the key European Council meetings to choose the new leaders of the EU institutions. | Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images

The prime minister’s reaction can be understood given the personal attacks that have been levelled against him and his family since he rose to the fore of Spanish politics a decade ago. During the past few years the center-right Popular Party has called Sa´nchez a usurper, a terrorist sympathizer and a traitor. The conservative opposition has also helped spread malicious rumors that his wife is actually a man, and that her family are drug smugglers who operate a network of sex clubs.

The intensity of the pressure to which Sánchez and his family have been subjected was underscored by the Spanish media on Friday, when multiple publications posted recordings of a 2014 meeting between the then-secretary of state for security, center-right politician Francisco Martínez, and José Manuel Villarejo. The latter, a disgraced police inspector, is suspected of being at the center of a powerful apparatus that worked to tarnish the reputations of politicians, senior judges and even members of the monarchy.

In the recording, the men discuss plans to “politically kill” Sánchez by going after his wife’s family and suggesting that they’re involved in illicit businesses. Later on Villarejo discusses the use of lawfare tactics — the launch of baseless court cases to harass and discredit political opponents — and mentions Manos Limpias as a group with whom he collaborates.

The recordings were cited at an emotional meeting of the Socialist Party’s top brass on Saturday, during which Sa´nchez’s ministers expressed support for their leader and begged him to not give in to his harassers. Outside the party headquarters in Madrid around 12,500 supporters gathered to shout “¡Quédate, Pedro!” — “Pedro, please stay!”

Mystery announcement

What Sánchez will do on Monday is a mystery even to his innermost circle.

A government official, granted anonymity to speak freely about the issue, said that the Cabinet had only become aware of Sánchez’s letter when it was published on X, and that the prime minister had kept to himself since then. The decision Sa´nchez has before him is a personal one that he is making with input from his family — and apparently no one else.

What Sa´nchez decides to do could result in very different scenarios for Spain.

The prime minister could announce that he is remaining in office, or alternately could leave the decision up to the Spanish parliament by submitting himself to a confidence vote. Sánchez would likely pass that test and receive the support of the same 179 lawmakers who confirmed his bid to form a government last November.

But if the prime minister quits, Spain could face a prolonged period of political uncertainty. The government would immediately go into caretaker mode, and King Felipe VI would have to hold consultations with political leaders in the parliament to determine if there is another candidate capable of forming a government.

Sánchez has no evident successor and it is unclear if there is anyone within the Socialists’ ranks around whom enough left-wing and separatist lawmakers could coalesce. Meanwhile, although Popular Party leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo is keen to be prime minister, he doesn’t have the required parliamentary support to form a government.

If no one can secure the backing of a simple majority of the parliament’s 350 lawmakers within two months, the body will be dissolved and new elections will be scheduled to be held 54 days later. Spain would therefore go to the polls in mid-August and likely not have a new government in place until the fall.

Besides the turmoil this scenario would cause domestically, Sánchez’s exit would also likely have an impact on key European Council meetings to choose the new leaders of the EU institutions.

It’s unclear how much sway the caretaker figure who would take over from Sánchez — presumably Deputy Prime Minister María Jesús Montero — would have in the crucial talks, and how much the collapse of yet another Socialist government in Iberia will affect the distribution of posts in the European Commission, Council and the EU’s foreign affairs arm.

Europe’s Socialists and Democrats are keen to have one of their members succeed Charles Michel as president of the European Council. Their ability to influence the top job negotiations will likely be weakened if Sánchez, one of the bloc’s most senior and powerful Socialist prime ministers, isn’t in the room when those talks happen.