Sri Lankan President's Party Wins Majority, Has Complex History With India

Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake-led National People's Power (NPP) party achieved a landslide victory on Friday in the snap parliamentary election. The sweeping mandate to Mr Dissanayake's coalition underlines widening support for his leftist policies, giving him the power to push through his plans to fight poverty and graft in the island nation struggling to emerge from the worst financial crisis since its independence from the British in 1948.

The 55-year-old leader had announced the parliamentary polls shortly after his election as president in September. His leftist coalition's victory marks a significant shift in Sri Lankan politics as the South Asian nation grapples with the aftermath of the mass protests that ousted former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2022. 

Snap Poll Results

In the previous parliament, NPP had just three seats, but after Friday's landslide victory, it got a two-thirds majority in the 225-member house. The Rajapaksa family's Podujana Peramuna party, whose cohort of brothers gave Sri Lanka two presidents during a dozen years in power and had 145 seats in the outgoing legislature, was virtually wiped out, winning just three seats.

The NPP secured almost 62 per cent or almost 7 million votes, up from the 42 per cent Mr Dissanayake won in September. This indicates that the new President has drawn more widespread support including from minorities. The party dominated the Jaffna electoral district – the heartland of the nation's Tamil minority.

Dissanayake dissolved parliament on September 24 to clear the way for the general election, days after the Marxist-leaning leader was elected president on a platform for change. The election became necessary as Dissanayake had just three lawmakers in the outgoing parliament - whose five-year term was due to end in August 2025 - and needed a fresh mandate to push his policies.

Voters directly elect 196 members to parliament from 22 constituencies under a proportional representation system. The remaining 29 seats will be allocated according to the island-wide proportional vote obtained by each party. 

New Challenges Ahead

In Sri Lanka, the president wields executive power, but Mr Dissanayake still required a parliamentary majority to appoint a fully-fledged cabinet to deliver on key promises to cut taxes, support local businesses, and fight poverty. 

A nation of 22 million, Sri Lanka was crushed by a 2022 economic crisis triggered by a severe shortage of foreign currency that pushed it into a sovereign default and caused its economy to shrink by 7.3 per cent in 2022 and 2.3 per cent last year. Boosted by a USD 2.9 billion bailout programme from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has begun a tentative recovery, but the high cost of living is still a critical issue for many, especially the poor.

Now, with more control over the government, the new president will face the challenge of steering the island nation towards economic recovery while also addressing the pressing issues of inflation and the cost of living.

He promised to slash taxes and introduce stronger welfare support for millions of poor people. He also aims to tweak targets set by the IMF to rein in income tax and free up funds to invest in welfare for the millions hit hardest by the crisis. However, investors worry his desire to revisit the terms of the IMF bailout could delay future disbursements, making it harder for Sri Lanka to hit a key primary surplus target of 2.3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 as set by the IMF.

"The president has a huge mandate now to carry through the reforms but also huge expectations from the people," a report by Reuters quoted Bhavani Fonseka, a researcher at Colombo's Centre for Policy Alternatives, as saying. 

"This is unprecedented, we haven't seen this kind of victory before. People voted for a change," she added. 

Meanwhile, the President said any changes to the contours of the IMF programme would be undertaken in consultation with the fund and that he is committed to ensuring repayment of debt. 

The new government is also expected to face talent issues, as the coalition has few leaders with governance and policy-making experience.

Moreover, while he was in opposition, Mr Dissanayake had argued against the massive powers of the executive presidency and its links to abuse of power. Now, with a two-thirds majority, the President can begin the process of abolishing the executive presidency, although analysts say that is not a pressing concern and is unlikely to be a priority.

What Does Dissanayake's Victory Mean For India?

Mr Dissanayake is the leader of Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), a party that had historically kept distance from India. JVP was also one of the parties that vehemently opposed the Indo-Lanka accord of 1987, signed by Sri Lanka's then-president JR Jayewardene and India's Rajiv Gandhi. The party spearheaded an insurrection to oppose Indian influence over Sri Lanka after the signing of the accord, which was put down by the administration.

However, despite his party's stance against India, Mr Dissanayake has expressed a desire to engage with India and maintain cordial relations. In September, during an interview with The Monocle, a global affairs and lifestyle magazine, Mr Dissanayake said he wants to avoid being "sandwiched" between India and China but recognises each as a "valued partner".

The former grassroots leader made it clear he intends to steer clear of geopolitical rumblings in South Asia or the Indian Ocean region. "There are many power camps within a multipolar system... but we won't be part of that geopolitical fight, nor will we be aligned with any party. We also don't want to be sandwiched, especially between China and India. Both are valued friends and we expect them to become closer partners," he said.