Starmer will try to prove Britain can be a reliable EU friend — and Germany will be key

John Kampfner is a British author, broadcaster and commentator. His latest book is “In Search of Berlin,” published by Atlantic.

Germany misses Britain. Just a little. Just enough to make the likely election of U.K. Labour leader Keir Starmer a matter of no small relief.

Still, expectations after the U.K. election will be low — partly because of the behavior of Britain’s last five Conservative prime ministers, partly because Britain’s no longer in the EU. But the caution will suit both sides well, enabling them to take baby steps.

As it stands, diplomats producing option papers in both countries over the past few months point to a similar set of priorities. Top of the list are wants that are hard to enumerate — reliability and consistency. Germany wants an end to the trickery, the Boris Johnson-esque flourishes or attempts to divide and rule within the EU. As one German official reminisced recently: “Even when we used to disagree with the British, we regarded them as trustworthy partners.”

Starmer’s international diary is already full. Five days after the July election, he’ll be in Washington for NATO’s annual summit — a perfect opportunity to glad hand world leaders, participate in the alliance “family photo” and hold his first bilateral meetings with U.S. President Joe Biden, crucial European counterparts and possibly Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

The summit’s also expected to be a crunch meeting for Ukraine, which is desperate for an acceleration in weapons delivery and more leeway in using them inside Russia — something the U.S. and Germany have been particularly wary of until recently.

Much to Kyiv’s relief, however, the incoming U.K. government has already made clear it intends to follow its predecessor’s Ukraine policy. Shadow Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs David Lammy and Shadow Secretary of State for Defence John Healey recently traveled to Kyiv to reiterate their “ironclad” support. “If there is a change of government after the election, there will be no change in Britain’s resolve to stand with Ukraine, confront Russian aggression and pursue Putin for his war crimes,” Healey insisted.

The day after the election, Lammy will give a speech to Foreign Office diplomats from the grandeur of the building’s Durbar Court, setting out the new government’s priorities, focusing on Ukraine and security — though interpreting security more widely to incorporate issues like energy, food, water and the environment. An approach that will also please German Minister for Foreign Affairs Annalena Baerbock, who outlined a similar one in her country’s National Security Strategy last June.

Then, on July 18 — the day after the pageantry of the State Opening of Parliament presided over by the King — Starmer will chair the biannual gathering of the European Political Community (EPC), the body that brings all 27 EU member countries together with 20 others from outside the bloc. The EPC is the brainchild of French President Emmanuel Macron, but — in one of the many Franco-German disagreements — Chancellor Olaf Scholz has hitherto regarded it as a waste of time, a diversion from proper EU and NATO business.

Five days after the July election, Kier Starmer will be in Washington for NATO’s annual summit. | Cameron Smith/Getty Images

It was somewhat of a surprise when the otherwise hapless then-U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss had agreed to go to the first gathering — though she apparently tried and failed to have the word “European” removed from its title. Current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, meanwhile, saw it as a potential embarrassment, delaying the meeting date before finally agreeing to July — and now he’s about to bequeath it to Starmer.

Starmer, for his part, can use the opportunity demonstrate a new era of cooperation with the EU, without getting into the vexed question of structures. I’m told by Labour insiders he won’t change the agenda the Tories outlined — including the topic of migration, demonstrating he, too, will be tough on the issue.

However, an expected point of tension will be the extent to which a new-look British government will stick to its insistence on dealing with EU member countries only bilaterally, and the extent to which it will engage directly with the European Commission.

This will be pivotal for transnational issues, such as selective freedom of movement. When the Commission proposed opening negotiations to allow mobility for millions of 18- to 30-year-olds a few months ago, it was a major concession. That it was rejected by Sunak was no surprise, but Starmer’s refusal to discuss the issue is seen as more of timing issue. And one of the pivotal questions will be whether the arrangement would be applied bilaterally or across the bloc.

If all goes well, though, we can expect some kind of memorandum of understanding between the U.K. and the EU in 2025. However, this could be delayed by the forthcoming European Parliament election and the months of fractious arguments over the Commission’s new composition that are likely to follow.

In the meantime, Starmer will be looking for demonstrable improvements, country by country. He’s already developed warm relations with Scholz, and ties are also growing with Macron. Starmer will seek out allies where he can find them, such as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.

Yet, in all this, Germany will be Britain’s key ally. Plans for a new security agreement will be put on the table, extending into the wider environmental context. Student exchanges will be an easy win, as will cooperation in science and tech. And each improvement will be deliberately methodical, testing the waters along the way.

Truth is, once elected, Starmer will immediately be thrust into a strange position: In a Europe moving sharply to the right, he’ll attract attention for simply being the only center-left leader from a major country with a majority. He’ll be studied — not just to see if he can restore the U.K.’s reputation for reliability, but whether he can provide social-democratic answers to any of the many problems facing both Britain and its neighbors.