The great Commission puzzle: Who we think will get each portfolio

2 months ago 2

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BRUSSELS — It’s the hottest game in town.

Ahead of Ursula von der Leyen handing out the key jobs in her next European Commission, Brussels is rife with speculation about who will get what role.

Snatching a big portfolio gives European capitals power over key decisions: How will Brussels make Europe more competitive? How much will the EU’s climate goals be softened to appease angry farmers? How fast will the EU open the door to more countries?

Based on dozens of conversations with officials from the European Commission, the European Parliament and the European Council, as well as with officials in different European capitals (plus some creative brainstorming in the newsroom), this is POLITICO’s educated guess about who will get what.

Of course, the complicated puzzle is far from finished and will remain in flux until the last minute. The announcement is penciled in for Wednesday, although nothing is set in stone. After all, von der Leyen has to take into account geographical balance, political balance and gender balance. European leaders have also been strongly lobbying her to make sure their commissioner clinches a good portfolio. Meanwhile, the different political factions that support von der Leyen in the European Parliament have been pushing her to ensure their political families get enough clout in the next Commission.

Therefore, von der Leyen has kept her cards extremely close to her chest, leaving even the future commissioners in the dark about their next jobs.

The much-desired competition portfolio, for example, is still up in the air at a crucial time. The competition department has an independent brief to rule on big deals, big fines and big subsidies that often rubs others up the wrong way. Competition officials are under huge pressure to give way to some governments’ demands to throw money at industrial giants and let them merge with rivals.

In this game, von der Leyen is the ticket master with dynamic pricing. Here’s who we think could get which portfolio, starting with the executive vice-presidents…

Thierry Breton (France)

Portfolio: Executive vice-president for industry and strategic autonomy

Why: The relationship between Breton and von der Leyen hasn’t always been the easiest, and got worse when Breton openly attacked her during the European Parliament election campaign. As retribution, she is likely to give him a smaller portfolio than he would have desired. Still, Breton is seen as someone who gets things done. His top role represents not just the liberals but also the weight of France in the EU (even though President Emmanuel Macron has been weakened domestically since the French election).

Raffaele Fitto (Italy)

Portfolio: Executive vice-president for cohesion, economy and post-pandemic recovery

Why: An executive vice-presidency for a member of the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists group will be sensitive for the socialists and liberals in the European Parliament. Still, there is confidence that they will ultimately get in line with the choice, as von der Leyen has long been trying to appease Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Putting Fitto in charge of the post-pandemic recovery fund and the EU’s regional economic policy (cohesion in EU jargon) gives Italy responsibility for key bits of the EU’s budget.

Valdis Dombrovskis (Latvia)

Portfolio: Executive vice-president for enlargement, reconstruction of Ukraine

Why: Dombrovskis is a European People’s Party heavyweight who has been collecting economic portfolios throughout his time at the Berlaymont. He’s also been at the forefront of the EU’s support for Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion of the country. This portfolio would combine his economic expertise with his political savviness. That is, if other countries don’t feel that the Baltics are overrepresented in this area, with both the Latvian Dombrovskis and the Estonian Kaja Kallas at the top of the European Commission. The level-headed Dombrovskis could also be a contender to get the politically sensitive competition portfolio.

Maroš Šefčovič (Slovakia)

Portfolio: Executive vice-president for administration, implementation, simplification and interinstitutional relations

Why: Šefčovič has been slowly but surely rising the ranks in the European Commission since becoming a commissioner in 2009. He is seen by von der Leyen as a steady and reliable figure and is thus likely to remain an executive vice-president (which will appease the Socialists). But this time around, the political cards are dealt more poorly for him. Slovakia’s domestic political situation is likely to cost Šefčovič (his Smer party is no longer in the socialist group in the European Parliament). With Teresa Ribeira (see below) being the top socialist in the college, Šefčovič’s portfolio is set to be less significant and involve a number of technocratic files, although he could potentially share an element of the budget portfolio with Poland’s Piotr Serafin (see below).

Teresa Ribera (Spain)

Portfolio: Executive vice-president for a green and digital transition

Why: The Spanish nominee is set to be the only socialist heavyweight in the Commission. Her climate background made her the frontrunner early on to oversee the implementation of the EU’s Green Deal. At the same time, she lobbied hard to have a more horizontal portfolio, with far-reaching and more economic competencies such as overseeing the digital transition. This aligns with von der Leyen’s ambition for a Clean Industrial Deal. However, there has been pushback from the conservatives of the European People’s Party against too much of a role for Ribeira on climate. Her name has also been mentioned for the competition portfolio, as the Financial Times reported on Friday.

Kaja Kallas (Estonia)

Portfolio: High representative of the European Union for foreign affairs and security policy

Why: Already picked by EU leaders to be the next foreign policy chief, the former Estonian prime minister is a Russia hawk who was seen as a good fit for the role geographically, politically and diplomatically.

Magnus Brunner (Austria)

Portfolio: Commissioner for financial services

Why: The Austrian finance minister, who hails from the same political family as von der Leyen, has a solid economic background and is seen as a reliable, experienced politician. That makes him a good candidate to handle delicate financial services files, including long-awaited efforts to boost the capital markets union. He’s another person who could instead end up being handed the competition portfolio, though.

Hadja Lahbib (Belgium)

Portfolio: Commissioner for home affairs

Why: The TV anchor turned Belgian foreign minister is not seen as the most reliable and experienced politician in her home country. But Belgium, which missed the nomination deadline and was the last country to send a nominee to von der Leyen, will not get an empty portfolio as it was one of the few countries to send a woman. Lahbib’s experience as foreign minister and being from a country renowned for its complicated politics could help her to represent the bloc in non-EU countries and on the delicate migration file.

Ekaterina Zaharieva (Bulgaria)

Portfolio: Commissioner for crisis management and humanitarian aid

Why: We’re going to be honest: this is an educated guess, as Bulgaria is not in the running for any of the key jobs. While Bulgaria has put forward two names — one male, one female — Zaharieva is all but certain to get the job as von der Leyen needs more women to have a gender-balanced college.

Dubravka Šuica (Croatia)

Portfolio: Commissioner for demography and justice

Why: The Croatian commissioner, who hails from von der Leyen’s EPP, is seen as a steady and reliable commissioner. Incumbent commissioners traditionally switch portfolios, but Šuica is keen to keep working on the demography file. Her current democracy and demography portfolio is set to get a boost during von der Leyen’s second term and Šuica’s name has been floated for several portfolios, including the Mediterranean job, but she could also be a given a shot at dealing with Europe’s tricky rule of law issues.

Costas Kadis (Cyprus)

Portfolio: Commissioner for the Mediterranean

Why: Cyprus actively lobbied to get the newly created role of commissioner for the EU’s Mediterranean policy. Kadis, who recently served as minister of agriculture, rural development and environment, is seen as a man able to do the job. A key question however will be what exactly the mandate of the new Mediterranean commissioner will be and whether the person who gets it will have enough power, budget and civil servants within the European Commission. An alternative for Kadis could be the environment portfolio.

Jozef Síkela (Czech Republic)

Portfolio: Commissioner for energy

Why: Síkela, currently the Czech industry and trade minister, became a known face in Brussels when he had to bridge the different positions within the EU on the energy crisis during the Czech presidency of the Council of the EU in 2022. At one press conference, Síkela wore a white sweatshirt that said: “We will convene as many energy councils as necessary.”

Dan Jørgensen (Denmark)

Portfolio: Commissioner for international climate policy

Why: For the last two years Jørgensen has been at the helm of the Danish ministry in charge of development cooperation and global climate policy. While Jørgensen’s background could also see him compete for an energy and climate portfolio, his experience as a former climate minister is the perfect setup for a portfolio dealing with the international aspects of the EU’s climate policy. He is seen as a trusted hand in the United Nations, with the Azerbaijani COP29 presidency asking him to lead consultations this year on the thorniest issue of the conference: setting a new goal for climate finance for poor countries.

Henna Virkkunen (Finland)

Portfolio: Commissioner for technology

Why: The former education minister has worked on several high-profile tech and innovation files as an EU lawmaker. Helsinki has presented Virkunnen to von der Leyen as the ideal fit for combining the digital transition with the EU’s desire to become more competitive.

Apostolos Tzitzikostas (Greece)

Portfolio: Commissioner for transport

Why: Greece’s Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis made clear that he expected an important portfolio in exchange for helping clinch another five years for von der Leyen. Overseeing the transport portfolio can be key to helping Greece’s shipping industry. If transport alone is not enough to please Mitsotakis, Tzitzikostas could become responsible for regional development, especially given his experience in the European Committee of the Regions.

Olivér Várhelyi (Hungary)

Portfolio: Commissioner for multilingualism, education and sport

Why: Várhelyi, who has been commissioner for neighborhood and enlargement since 2019, is controversial in Brussels, and in the European Parliament specifically (he called MEPs “idiots”). The relationship between Brussels and Hungary is also at a fresh low after Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán’s self-declared “peace missions” to Kyiv, Moscow, Beijing and Washington. If Várhelyi does not pass the hearing in the European Parliament, Hungary will have to send another candidate.

Michael McGrath (Ireland)

Portfolio: Commissioner for innovation

Why: As a fiscal conservative, the former Irish finance minister was a contender to keep EU member countries’ spending in check as budget commissioner. It was one of his preferred portfolios, according to officials close to him. But his own national party voting against von der Leyen’s reappointment hasn’t done him any favors and could contribute to him landing a less-significant portfolio. Fisheries could be an option, although that could be tricky given the post-Brexit discussions the EU is set to have with the United Kingdom on fish. Ireland would rather net a portfolio related to research or innovation.

Andrius Kubilius (Lithuania)

Portfolio: Commissioner for security, defense industry and space

Why: Von der Leyen has indicated that it would make sense to give the newly created defense commissioner post to someone from Central or Eastern Europe. An MEP specializing in foreign affairs, Kubilius is a seasoned politician with over five years of experience as prime minister on two separate occasions. He is widely respected, having steered Lithuania through the 2008 financial crisis. Kubilius has also been vocal in supporting Ukraine. He has stressed the need for ongoing military support for Kyiv by advocating a plan that would see Western allies contribute 0.25 percent of GDP to help beat Russia on the battlefield. He also called to make Moscow foot the bill for Ukraine’s reconstruction using all frozen Russian assets. In Vilnius, he proposed the creation of a government department or ministry entirely devoted to Ukraine issues.

Christophe Hansen (Luxembourg)

Portfolio: Commissioner for agriculture

Why: The EPP is keen on the agriculture portfolio and Hansen is a natural fit for the job. He comes from a farming family and his cousin, Martine Hansen, is Luxembourg’s agriculture minister. As an MEP, he led negotiations on the EU’s new deforestation rules and worked on steering national plans for EU farm policy. The Luxembourger would also be seen as a sensitive choice across political groups and lobbies in von der Leyen’s attempt to depolarize the agriculture battleground, bringing his expertise on environmental and trade issues. Hansen is seen as a strong nominee, which could potentially also land him the trade portfolio.

Glenn Micallef (Malta)

Portfolio: Commissioner for equality, youth and ensuring intergenerational fairness

Why: Micallef is seen as one of the weaker nominees as he has never held political office. There are other disadvantages: Malta (like others) refused to send a female nominee to Brussels to achieve von der Leyen’s goal of a gender-balanced Commission and it is also the smallest country in the bloc. With European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, the island already has a top job in Brussels, which leaves Micallef likely to get one of the less important portfolios.

Wopke Hoekstra (the Netherlands)

Portfolio: Commissioner for trade and economic security

Why: In a speech at Eindhoven’s renowned technical university last week, Hoekstra seemed to apply for at least four different jobs: from industrial policy to budget. He might have to settle for trade. Yet make no mistake, less open trade probably means more work for the commissioner. Hoekstra would see plenty of overlapping action in the areas of competition, climate regulation and economic security. The former Dutch finance and foreign affairs minister has managerial attributes, having worked at McKinsey and Shell before going into politics. His fratboy history in posh university town Leiden and tone-deaf remarks directed at Covid-rattled Italy could return to haunt him. After all, trade negotiations are about good cross-cultural communication. At least he apologized. Agriculture could be an alternative portfolio, although that would put the Netherlands in a domestically sensitive spot given the country has faced major farmers’ protests.

Piotr Serafin (Poland)

Portfolio: Commissioner for budget

Why: There are many contenders for the budget portfolio, as the bloc is gearing up for an epic fight over its next seven-year spending plan, in which each country wants to see its own priorities reflected. But Serafin has some advantages. He has the political weight of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk behind him, as he was his right-hand man for years. Tusk, who helped clinch von der Leyen her second term and is an EPP heavyweight, can ask for a key portfolio. As Tusk’s former chief of staff when he was European Council president, Serafin also knows how to wheel and deal with the different capitals, a key asset to getting a budget deal over the line.

Maria Luís Albuquerque (Portugal)

Portfolio: Commissioner for fisheries

Why: There are a number of jobs that could go to Albuquerque, a former finance minister and career civil servant. Fisheries is one of them, although she is some Commission staffers’ favorite for the financial services portfolio (and officials say she has a great relationship with the top official in the Directorate-General for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union, John Berrigan). Lisbon has been eyeing an economic portfolio and could also get competition or single market, especially if Albuquerque reports to an important executive vice-president such as Dombrovskis.

ROXANA MÎNZATU (ROMANIA)

Portfolio: Commissioner for jobs, social rights and housing

Why: The housing and social rights portfolios are set to go to a socialist — a nod to the center-left’s inclusion of the issues as top items in their election manifesto. Given the limited number of socialist nominees, Mînzatu could end up with the post, rewarding Romania for flipping from a male to a female candidate (and thus helping von der Leyen move toward her goal of a gender-balanced Commission.) Her role as a former minister for European funds touched upon several policy areas. An alternative could be a more entrepreneurial or economic portfolio.

? (Slovenia)

Portfolio: Commissioner for health

Why: Tomaž Vesel, Slovenia’s pick to be its European commissioner, withdrew his candidacy on Friday following pressure from von der Leyen to provide woman nominees. The portfolio for Slovenia will depend on the candidate it puts forward to replace him. Health could be one of the options, as could crisis management and humanitarian aid.

Jessika Roswall (Sweden)

Portfolio: Commissioner for internal market

Why: While Roswall is also rumored to get home affairs, it seems unlikely that Sweden will get another run at that portfolio after commissioner Yiva Johansson held it in von der Leyen’s first term. Stockholm has been eying an economic portfolio and is set to be rewarded for sending a competent female candidate to Brussels. A downside to her clinching the important internal market portfolio could be the Swedish stance toward China, as it is seen as hawkish.

Barbara Moens, Max Griera, Jacopo Barigazzi, Kathryn Carlson, Gregorio Sorgi, Aitor Hernández-Morales, Eddy Wax, Karl Mathiesen, Koen Verhelst, Pieter Haeck, Paula Andres Richart, Camille Gijs, Stuart Lau, Tommaso Lecca and Aoife White contributed reporting.

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