The great Tory beauty pageant

LONDON — Roll up, roll up … the great Tory beauty parade is about to begin. 

Over the next three months, the U.K. Conservatives will elect a new leader to steer the party through the choppy waters of opposition, dreaming of a swift return to power. 

The field is likely to be wide. Nominations opened Wednesday evening in the contest to replace defeated ex-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, with leadership hopefuls requiring the support of just 10 of the party’s 121 members of parliament to join the race. 

Candidates who secure sufficient nominations by Monday will spend the summer campaigning, and then face being whittled down in early September by fellow Tory MPs in a series of voting rounds in parliament. 

The remaining four candidates will then descend upon Birmingham on September 29 for what should be one of the most important — and entertaining — party conferences in recent history. 

One hundred miles north of London in Britain’s second city, the four wannabe leaders will take to the stage for the political version of a beauty pageant — taking turns to make their pitches to Tory MPs and party members alike.

“I don’t think I’ve ever been so excited to go to Birmingham,” wrote the Tory blogger William Atkinson this week.

The battle of ideas — and the gladhanding — will stretch from the Tory conference hall through endless panel events to the white wine drinks receptions and the crowded smoking areas outside. 

Nominations opened in the contest to replace defeated ex-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. | Tolga Akmen/EPA

After the contenders have made their final pitches, Tory MPs will vote again in early October to whittle the candidates down to just two — a final shortlist for the party’s grassroots members to choose between, via an online ballot running through to the end of the month.

The winner will — finally — be announced on Nov. 2, three days before the U.S. election. 

And they’re off!

While officially the leadership race is just beginning, the jostling for position has been underway for some time.

On Tuesday night, three of the top contenders for the Tory crown were milling around Parliament’s famous terrace bar, attempting to shore up support with their fellow MPs. Priti Patel, James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat were all spotted making their pitches to colleagues in varying states of tipsiness. 

Cleverly, the shadow home secretary, was first out of the blocks this week, formally announcing his candidacy in the Daily Telegraph, the broadsheet newspaper popular among the party’s membership. 

“I am putting myself forward … because I can unite the Conservative Party and overturn [Labour Leader Keir] Starmer’s loveless landslide,” he wrote. 

Priti Patel, like Cleverly a former home secretary, has also decided to run, with her campaign team stressing her experience working under multiple Conservative prime ministers. She has also tasted life in opposition, when working for 1990s leader William Hague. 

Shadow Housing Secretary Kemi Badenoch, seen by many as the front-runner given her popularity with party members, will also stand. Her campaign is set to replicate her previous tilt in 2022, where she focused on telling her party hard truths — just as she did in the first meeting of the new shadow Cabinet this month, where she openly criticized Rishi Sunak’s election campaign. 

Tom Tugendhat, the centrist shadow security minister, and Robert Jenrick, the former immigration minister who has begun to curry support on the right of the party, are also expected to stand. 

Priti Patel, James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat were all spotted making their pitches to colleagues. | Adam Vaughan/EPA

There are questions, however, about the prospects of a third former home secretary, Brexit hardliner Suella Braverman, whose leadership ambitions have long been clear.

Multiple Tory MPs told POLITICO they have doubts over whether Braverman will be able to get the required number of MP supporters even to make it past the first stage of the contest, with many of those who nominated her for leader in 2022 no longer sitting in parliament. 

Other contenders who have not ruled themselves out of a push for the top job include Mel Stride, the shadow pensions secretary and a close ally of Sunak, Victoria Atkins, the shadow health secretary, Kevin Hollinrake, the shadow business secretary, and Chris Philp, the shadow leader of the House of Commons. 

Play nice, please

Some in the party fear that such a drawn-out contest could turn nasty.

The Conservative Party, having toppled a trio of leaders in recent years — Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss were all dethroned by their colleagues between 2019 and late 2022 — has a justified reputation for infighting. 

As a result, the party’s depleted and election-weary MPs have been begging would-be candidates to behave themselves. 

Multiple Tory MPs and shadow Cabinet ministers told Playbook that following the general election, one key message they took from voters was that there needs to be an end to “blue-on-blue” attacks. 

The Tory whips — party enforcers who must remain impartial throughout the contest — have already hauled in the suspected leadership contenders to tell them in no uncertain terms that it must be a clean campaign, for the sake of the party’s future. 

Others fear a leadership vacuum will allow both the Labour government and other contender parties — such as Nigel Farage’s Reform UK — to frame the debate. | Oli Scarff/Getty Images

The party’s decision to “go long” and run the most drawn-out Tory leadership contest since David Cameron’s victory in 2005 has been welcomed by many MPs.

One former Cabinet minister told POLITICO they hoped it will give all candidates — not just the front-runners — the chance to impress grassroots members, in the way that Cameron famously did in coming from relative obscurity to win the leadership. 

Charlie Dewhirst, a new intake Tory MP told POLITICO: “It’s important to strike a balance between a smooth transition to a new leader and giving the candidates time to set out their stall to Parliamentary colleagues, party members and the public.” 

But others fear a leadership vacuum will allow both the Labour government and other contender parties — such as Nigel Farage’s Reform UK — to frame the debate. Sunak has agreed to stay on as interim Tory leader until November, but few expect him to offer up savage opposition to Starmer.

“Just attended my first PMQs,” Farage tweeted on Wednesday, following the first head-to-head Prime Minister’s Questions session between Starmer and his defeated rival.

“There is no opposition in the chamber at all. The Tories agree with Labour on virtually everything.”

It’s a perception the next Tory leader will need to change fast.