The Surge in Polymarket Bets on Biden Exiting 2024 Race

A significant report from The New York Times has dramatically impacted the political betting landscape. On Polymarket, traders temporarily increased the odds of President Joe Biden exiting the 2024 race to 77% on Wednesday. 

Biden’s odds and recent speculations

This sharp increase marks the peak of a turbulent week in Polymarket’s “Biden drops out of presidential race?” bet, which has attracted nearly $10 million. Before the recent debate with Donald Trump, the odds were at a mere 20%. They have stabilized at 63% as of now. Biden’s meeting with Vice President Kamala Harris on Wednesday has intensified the speculation. 

Source: Polymarket

Several polls indicate Biden is losing ground to Trump, fueling rumors that Harris might replace him in the race. Biden’s private lunch with Harris at the White House occurred hours before a meeting with over 20 influential Democratic governors. 

This group included California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, all seen as potential successors if Biden steps down. These critical discussions came shortly after Biden’s subpar debate performance, causing panic within the party about his competitiveness against Trump.

Increasing pressure on Biden

The pressure is escalating despite firm statements from the White House and Biden’s campaign that he will remain in the race. New polls show a sharp decline in support for Biden’s candidacy. According to sources, a group of moderate Democratic House members focused on national security has drafted a letter urging Biden to withdraw. 

Many Democratic lawmakers are reportedly considering signing this letter, advocating for Biden to step aside. Additionally, Arizona Democratic Congressman Raúl Grijalva publicly called for Biden to suspend his re-election bid on Wednesday. Grijalva stated, “This is an opportunity to look elsewhere. What [Biden] needs to do is shoulder the responsibility. Part of that responsibility is to get out of the race.”

Massachusetts Congressman Seth Moulton also expressed concerns, citing his “grave concerns” about Biden’s chances against Trump. Moulton added, “President Biden is not going to get younger. We should have all viable options on the table.”

Debate Performance and Its Impact

Biden’s debate performance has significantly affected his support. Polls from The New York Times, CBS, and The Wall Street Journal, all conducted after the debate, indicate a noticeable drop in support for Biden. This data has intensified the discussion within the Democratic Party about the best path forward.

The recent developments surrounding President Biden’s potential exit from the 2024 race have shaken the political betting scene. High-level discussions with critical Democratic figures and growing internal pressures are shaping a crucial moment for the Democratic Party as it navigates its strategy for the upcoming election.

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