The world is heading towards war, and it will begin in the Middle East

The multi-faceted nature of what started as an Israel-Gaza conflict makes it chaotic, unpredictable, and likely to spread

With each passing day, the Middle East inches closer to a full-scale, devastating war. Multiple regional powers are involved, each being pushed by its own internal and external pressures further away from peace. 

The situation intensified following the events of October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched an attack on Israel, prompting a fierce response from the Israeli military. Palestinians continue to insist on a return to the 1967 borders and the establishment of their own state with East Jerusalem as its capital, while Israel refuses to make these concessions. Tensions remain high, severely complicating any attempts at a diplomatic resolution.

Some Western officials, however, particularly in the US, claim that a ceasefire agreement is imminent, and optimism about these statements is buoyed by Iran’s restraint in not yet retaliating for the assassination of Hamas Politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, 2024. Iran seems to be holding back, perhaps in hopes of stabilizing the region. 

However, there are forces within and beyond the region that continue to exert a destructive influence, seemingly unaware that their actions could lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands, the collapse of several states, and disastrous consequences for the entire world.

This is precisely what Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov addressed during a press conference on August 27. He expressed the view that some parties involved in the Middle Eastern conflict are not interested in a resolution. According to him, these parties prefer to continue the hostilities, betting on potential changes in the global political landscape. Lavrov noted that it appears some of these actors are deliberately maintaining violence to achieve their political goals.

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Lavrov also highlighted the connection between the situation in the Middle East and political processes in other countries, particularly the upcoming election in the US. He suggested that the Israeli leadership might be hoping for changes in American policy that would reduce international pressure on Israel concerning its military operation in Gaza. The foreign minister expressed concern that these expectations could delay a resolution of the conflict.

Furthermore, Lavrov stressed that Russia, like many other countries, condemned the terrorist attacks that occurred on October 7. However, he pointed out that a response involving collective punishment of the civilian population violates international humanitarian law. He criticized approaches that cause suffering to innocent people and exacerbate the humanitarian catastrophe. Lavrov paid special attention to statements by Israeli military officials who claim there are no civilians in Gaza, suggesting that all its residents are terrorists. He called this rhetoric dangerous, noting that it further inflames tensions. 

In recent weeks, negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas have failed to produce any concrete agreements on a ceasefire. While the talks in Cairo were described as constructive, no agreements were reached. This situation illustrates that, despite the efforts of the international community, the parties to the conflict are not yet ready for peace.

Why is Iran holding fire?

The recent assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, a prominent leader of Hamas, has raised numerous questions about Iran’s response, given its longstanding support for Palestinian resistance groups and the fact that the man was killed in Tehran. Iran has yet to strike back against Israel, which at first glance might seem surprising. The reasons for this restraint lie in Iran’s strategic interests and its desire to avoid a large-scale conflict.

First and foremost, the Iranian leadership understands that a war with Israel could have catastrophic consequences. The situation in the Middle East is already highly volatile, and an open conflict involving Iran would only exacerbate the crisis. Furthermore, Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, a representative of the reformist bloc, is focused on normalizing relations with the West. The primary reason for this is Iran’s dire economic situation. In 2024, the Iranian economy continues to face significant challenges: Inflation has reached 40%, unemployment has risen to 15%, and the national currency continues to depreciate. Under these conditions, Iran is not interested in a war that could further undermine its economy and increase social tensions within the country.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has repeatedly expressed a willingness to negotiate a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, also known as the Iran nuclear deal) under fair terms. These statements indicate that Iran is pursuing diplomatic solutions and recognizes the need for international cooperation. Tehran is aware that the outcome of a war with Israel, backed by NATO, is unpredictable. Thus, the delay in responding to Israel’s actions is more of a political tool than a sign of weakness. Iran seeks to use this pause to exert diplomatic and political pressure on Israel and the US to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza.

If a ceasefire is reached, Iran could claim that its wise policy led to the cessation of hostilities, marking a political victory for Tehran in its confrontation with Israel. This would allow Iran to improve its international image and strengthen its position in the region without the need for military engagement.

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On the other hand, Iran has not officially ruled out retaliating against Israel, which creates a certain level of informational and political pressure on the Israeli authorities and public. This stance by Tehran has fueled growing discontent among the Israeli population regarding the actions of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, exacerbating internal tensions. This leads to political instability in Israel, which plays into Iran’s hands as it seeks to weaken its main regional adversary without direct military confrontation.

Thus, Iran is playing a complex game, trying to avoid direct military conflict while simultaneously increasing its influence and pressure on Israel and the West through diplomatic and political maneuvers.

Why Netanyahu won’t end the war if he can help it

The administration of Netanyahu finds itself in a challenging situation both domestically and internationally. Declining support at home and insufficient backing from the West, especially from Washington, are pushing Netanyahu toward continuing the conflict. Ending the military operation in Gaza at this stage could be a political blow to his government.

Domestically, Netanyahu’s approval ratings are falling. The public is weary of the prolonged fighting and the uncertainty brought on by the unstable situation in Gaza and other fronts. Meanwhile, in the West and particularly in Washington, Netanyahu is not receiving full support. The administration of US President Joe Biden has taken a more restrained stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which is reflected in its attitude towards the current Israeli leadership. Netanyahu is banking on the return of Donald Trump to the White House, hoping this will improve his situation.

Netanyahu is confident that with Trump’s return to power, his domestic standing would be bolstered, and Israel’s position in the region would become more secure. During Trump’s first term, relations between the US and Israel only strengthened. Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and imposed additional sanctions, increasing pressure on Tehran. It was also under Trump that the Abraham Accords were signed, through which Israel normalized relations with several Arab countries. All of this created favorable conditions for Israel in the region.

Netanyahu’s far-right cabinet is determined to prevent the creation of a Palestinian state, as evidenced by a recent Knesset resolution passed by a majority vote. In the view of Netanyahu and other right-wing forces in Israel, the establishment of Palestine poses a threat to the existence of the state of Israel. Therefore, they oppose any attempts to create an independent Palestinian state and are willing to use all means necessary to prevent it.

Even if Netanyahu temporarily reduces the intensity of the military action in Gaza and agrees to a temporary ceasefire with Hamas to free hostages, this will not signify the end of the conflict. It is likely that Israel will intensify military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon or even resume strikes on Gaza. To secure his interests and ensure his strength, Netanyahu needs Washington’s support, both financially and militarily.

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Thus, under Netanyahu’s current government, the war is likely to continue. This is due to the need to maintain domestic political support and leverage the geopolitical situation to strengthen Israel’s position in the region. In these circumstances, ending the conflict does not align with the interests of Netanyahu’s government, and he will likely continue to escalate tensions until he secures the necessary guarantees of support from the US and reinforces his standing at home.

The Axis of Resistance is a shaky one

Recent reports have surfaced about growing disagreements between Iran and other members of the ‘Axis of Resistance’, a coalition of various groups and organizations that oppose Israel and its allies. These divisions are believed to stem from Iran’s ambiguous response to Israeli actions, which has led to a deterioration in the positions of groups such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis (Ansar Allah).

The situation surrounding Hezbollah continues to escalate. In recent weeks, tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have significantly intensified. Mutual shelling has become more frequent, and several high-ranking Hezbollah members have been killed in Israeli attacks. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and his associates find themselves in a difficult position, as their failure to respond to Israel’s actions could further weaken their standing within Lebanon.

Hezbollah is currently facing challenging times, as Lebanon has been mired in a deep political, economic, financial, and energy crisis since 2019. Amid this crisis, Hezbollah’s political influence is waning and the organization is losing public support. If Hezbollah fails to achieve military successes like those seen during the Second Lebanon War in 2006, its position within the country may weaken even further, threatening its continued existence and political influence.

A similar situation is unfolding in Yemen, where the Ansar Allah group, known as the Houthis, also faces internal challenges. Although the Houthis have strengthened their position through anti-Western and anti-Israeli rhetoric, the prolonged war and crisis have depleted the country’s resources and its population. If the Houthis do not remain consistent in their actions and fail to demonstrate their ability to resist external adversaries, their popularity and internal support could significantly decline.

Amid rising tensions and instability in the region, the risk of conflicts escalating through the actions of non-state actors, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, increases. Iran, which is unlikely to engage in direct warfare with Israel, will probably use its proxy groups for retaliatory actions. However, this strategy also carries significant risks, as there is no guarantee that Iran can stay out of a large-scale regional war that could engulf the entire Middle East.

Thus, the current situation in the region remains highly unstable, and the future of the Axis of Resistance, as well as regional security in general, depends on the ability of these groups to adapt to changing conditions and maintain unity in the face of common challenges.

Everything has spiraled out of control

The situation in the Middle East remains extremely tense, and it seems that wider conflict has become inevitable. The Israeli authorities feel compelled to continue military actions, believing this necessary for survival and protection against threats from various groups within the Axis of Resistance. At the same time, these groups find themselves in a similarly dire position, needing to respond to Israeli actions to maintain their influence and political support within their own countries. Mutual hostility and distrust fuel the escalation, creating a vicious cycle of violence.

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Attempts to resolve the conflict through diplomatic means face significant obstacles, as neither side is willing to make compromises. Israel seeks to maintain its security and territorial integrity, while members of the Axis of Resistance refuse to abandon their goals and strategies. Both sides rely on force as the primary tool for achieving their interests, making peaceful negotiations nearly impossible under current conditions. The lack of trust and willingness to engage in dialogue only exacerbates the situation, turning it into a protracted conflict with unpredictable consequences.

At present, the conflict has become part of a global transformation of the world order. It seems that no one is capable of preventing further escalation, as events in global politics unfold spontaneously, beyond the control of individual states and international organizations. The existing crisis in the world order has led to an uncontrollable wave of chaos and conflicts that have engulfed various regions around the world. Amid the weakening of international norms and rules of order, every state and political actor is trying to minimize its damage, reacting to events as they occur.

Thus, the current instability in the region reflects a broader issue related to the global transformation and changes in the world order. In the absence of effective international mechanisms for conflict resolution and growing distrust among key actors in the global community, the future of the region remains uncertain. The conflict we are witnessing now is just one of many flashpoints around the world, and its development will depend on the ability of the international community to adapt to new realities and find ways to coexist peacefully.