Time for Ukraine to work with the Russian opposition

Maxim Mironov is professor of finance at the IE Business School in Madrid.

Ever since the war began, Ukraine has relied on the West as its main ally in the fight against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion. However, after almost two years of conflict, it is becoming clearer that Ukraine and the West have different goals.

Ukraine aspires to recover all its territories currently occupied by Russia. Meanwhile, the West prefers to maintain the current situation, gradually weakening Russia and avoiding major direct confrontation. Ultimately, it is a question of how long Ukraine’s resources will last and enable it to continue fighting.

When the war broke out, Ukraine’s leaders immediately adopted the mindset that it was at war not with Putin, but with all of Russia and its people. This approach was initially justified, as it mobilized both Ukrainian society and Western public opinion. However, at this stage in the war, it might be reasonable to start viewing part of Russia as an ally that can be rallied to fight against Putin’s regime and his imperialism.

Most Russian opposition leaders have sided with Ukraine since the early days of the war, advocating for a free, independent, democratic Ukraine based on its 1991 borders. And it is now time to open a second line of attack from within Russia itself.

Although there are many differences between Ukrainian society and the Russian opposition, joining forces against a common enemy would be useful in several ways.

One example of this is the dissemination of anti-war information. Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989 wasn’t the result of military defeat. Instead, it came from extensive domestic opposition to the war. It was glasnost — the policy of freedom of speech adopted by then Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev two years earlier — that contributed to the widespread growth of negative public sentiment.

Of course, we shouldn’t expect Putin’s regime to ease up on media pressure now. But while the Russian opposition knows what to say — they continually monitor the domestic mood and conducts polls to gauge public anxieties — it lacks the expertise to target mass audiences through the media. Ukraine, however, has media experts who do — and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has particular expertise in this as well, specifically in relation to mass Russian audiences.

Ukraine’s media battle against Russian propaganda should be given the same importance as the front lines of the conflict. Vast resources aren’t required for this. Rather, Putin’s information monopoly can be broken by combining media talent with serious effort, particularly as Russian discontent with his policies begin to emerge — such as the protests organized by the wives of soldiers on the front lines.

Another area in which joining forces could be of use is sanctions. Nearly two years after Western sanctions were implemented, we can now conclude that sanctions have failed to divide Russia’s ruling elites. On the contrary, we see them rallying behind Putin. Ukraine and the Russian opposition thus need to come together to adopt a personal sanctions regime, for example, by offering sanctions relief in exchange for openly condemning Putin and financially backing Ukraine. These incentives don’t currently exist.

Obviously, Putin’s regime isn’t solely dependent on oligarchs. It also receives daily operational and PR support from a broad class of mid-level officials and public figures. These are individuals who frequently evade the sanctioning purview of Western regulators and continue to enjoy comfortable lives in the West.

For over a year now, imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation has been pushing for sanctions against a 6,000-strong list of “bribetakers and warmongers.” Coordinating efforts on this front could damage the prosperity of such individuals, and Ukraine could provide the political support to do this.

For over a year now, imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation has been pushing for sanctions against a 6,000-strong list of “bribetakers and warmongers” | Natalia Kolesnikova/AFP via Getty

It would also make sense to join forces in pinpointing sanctions loopholes, including inflated energy prices and suppliers of weapon components. The Russian opposition has a wealth of data that can trace the logistics chains of component deliveries from Western companies to arms manufacturers, as well as track which organizations are circumventing sanctions.

Finally, another useful collaboration would be to jointly encourage the outflow of human capital from Russia. Many Russians who left immediately after February 2022 have now mostly returned to their homeland. And their return was triggered by restrictive immigration policies in other countries, which deter even highly qualified individuals. Naturally, this benefits Putin’s regime, enabling Russia’s economy to run smoothly and taxes to be collected.

But Ukraine should be encouraging Russian professionals, especially those in the IT and defense sectors, to leave their country. Ukraine and Russian opposition groups should argue for European Union countries to ease the financial restrictions and immigration measures on such citizens.

For instance, banning Visa and MasterCard impedes the outflow of capital from Russia, and it reduces funding sources for the opposition as well. If Western companies were to reinstate payments, could Putin shut them down again? Of course, he could. However, this would probably lead to Russian resentment directed at Putin rather than the West. As it stands, though, Putin’s propaganda simply exploits these and other similar discriminatory measures against Russian citizens, fueling widespread anti-Western sentiment.

I understand that these joint efforts may only yield results over a long period of time. However, it should be recognized that the likelihood of achieving victory by military means alone is slim. And this strategy is in line with Ukrainians’ readiness to continue to defend their homeland.

While Ukrainian troops hold their lines, Russian society is decaying from within. Who knows, perhaps events will begin to unfold more quickly? Just this summer, the leader of the paramilitary Wagner group Yevgeny Prigozhin rebelled from within, inflicting substantial damage to the upper echelons of power in Russia. If the pressure on elites is increased, the likelihood of similar rebellions will rise.

I’m also well aware that Ukrainian society and its leaders may harbor negative sentiments toward this proposal. However, looking back on the historical cooperation during World War II, USSR Premier Joseph Stalin had even more contradictions with British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt on everything. In fact, at the beginning, the USSR and Britain even fought on opposite sides. Yet, when they realized their common enemy’s formidable strength, they joined forces and ultimately triumphed.

The Russian opposition has expressed its desire to cooperate with Ukraine since the war started. It is now time to accept this offer and pool efforts to defeat our shared adversary — it certainly can’t make the situation any worse.