Top jobs timeline: What happens after the EU election

Let the games begin.

On June 10, the day after the EU election, the real fight starts: doling out the four European top jobs and dozens of smaller prizes among the main political families. 

First and foremost, the 27 EU heads of state and government must reach a deal on the next presidents of the European Commission, the European Council and the European Parliament as well as the EU’s next foreign policy chief. Political jockeying and speculation about top jobs has been going on for months behind the scenes, especially as the expected surge of the far right looks set to mix up the traditional power dynamics. 

These leaders will set the political compass of the bloc until 2029. Equally telling will be who emerges empty-handed amid the negotiations, revealing the power center in the new EU.

POLITICO will walk you through the dates to watch, what to look out for, and just exactly how long this will all drag on.

The main takeaway? Forget about taking any holidays before August. 

June 10: Brussels 

Waking up bleary-eyed on Monday, June 10, the foremost political minds will take in the election results and game out different scenarios. 

If the center-right European People’s Party remains the biggest group in the European Parliament, they will feel emboldened to propose the current European Commission chief, Ursula von der Leyen, for a second term.

The EPP and von der Leyen’s right-hand man Björn Seibert will immediately do the math to check if a majority of 361 votes in the European Parliament is within reach.

The morning after, though, the picture won’t be complete. 

In most national elections, the number of seats per party is only obvious once we have the final results. In the European Parliament, MEPs do not officially become part of a pan-European political grouping until the groups have all met and formally agreed on their membership.

In those first few weeks after the election, Parliament will be busy with deal-making as groups attempt to swallow up national parties, coaxing them with small prizes, like influential committee coordinator positions. 

Outgoing Parliament President Roberta Metsola, who is eyeing a second two-and-a-half year term, will likely convene a meeting of the current political group leaders on June 11, to take stock of the results. 

Once a name emerges from the Council (more on that below) the groups will negotiate to get their most beloved policies into the Commission’s work schedule — and threaten not to support them if they don’t say yes.

At the first group meetings, scheduled between June 18 and July 3, the groups will also elect their new leaders, as the new political make-up of the Parliament emerges. New groups can be formed at any time, though.

June 13-15: G7, Apulia, Italy

There will be no formal deals made at the G7. But given it is the first time after the election that von der Leyen, European Council President Charles Michel, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will see each other, the top jobs carve-up will inevitably be a major conversation at the five-star Borgo Egnazia hotel.

June 17: European Council, Brussels

EU leaders will meet over dinner for an informal EU summit in Brussels. Don’t expect top job deals just yet as it will be the first official discussion on the topic, led by the European Council president (who himself is being replaced).

Political parties will have internal meetings with their respective leaders to talk strategy before heading toward the European Council building for dinner. 

For example, the EPP — whose chief negotiators at the Council will be Greece’s Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Poland’s Donald Tusk (who chaired the same negotiations as Council president in 2019) — intends to reaffirm support for von der Leyen. It remains to be seen how much power the political negotiators will have during the process but it’s worth keeping an eye on them. “Please don’t ask me about names,” Tusk said at this point in the last cycle.

Before the Council puts forward a name, Michel will likely visit the European Parliament to consult with the heads of the political groups, just as Tusk did in 2019.

June 27-28: European Council, Brussels 

The hope of EU capitals is to have a deal on the top jobs ready at this summit. The main political families — the EPP, Socialists and liberals (who sit as Renew Europe in the Parliament) — will each demand a piece of the pie.

EU leaders want to agree on all the top jobs at the same time, taking into account the balance between the different political groups, geographic diversity and gender balance. The 27 EU leaders need to agree on a Commission president by qualified majority — a majority of countries representing a majority of Europe’s population, but the bar is lower for the other posts.

The 27 EU leaders need to agree on a Commission president by qualified majority. | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images

It’s not a given they will decide everything at once. 

Leaders may need clarity that von der Leyen will win enough support in the European Parliament before agreeing on the rest of the package. In order to be reelected, von der Leyen will need 361 out of the 720 MEPs to back her. Considering she had a narrow nine-vote majority in 2019, that’s no small feat since this time she will likely face a larger far-right contingent coupled with a smaller Green bloc.

At the summit, the leaders will also sign off on the Strategic Agenda, a document agreed every five years by EU leaders to spell out the bloc’s aims for the upcoming European Commission. 

July 16: European Parliament, Strasbourg

The European Parliament will kick off its new term with 720 lawmakers. Their first priority will be voting on their own president. Normally this is a carve-up between the EPP — Maltese EPP MEP Metsola currently sits on the throne — and the Socialists. It’s likely a similar deal will happen this time, perhaps allowing Metsola to roll over her term with an S&D member taking over in 2026. 

By this point, the Parliament’s political groups should have reached a pre-cooked agreement on an overall package of in-house roles stretching all the way from vice presidents to committee chairs. Some 100 roles are up for grabs. 

The deal should broadly be based on the respective size of the political groups following a system of proportional representation. Still, politics is involved, especially when it comes to imposing a cordon sanitaire to block the far-right Identity & Democracy group from getting key posts.

The Parliament then will have to schedule a vote to confirm the European Council’s nominee for Commission president. 

At the moment, the Greens, Socialists and Renew want to schedule the vote during the plenary week in July to leave less time for rightwingers to get their claws into von der Leyen or whoever else is being touted, instead of waiting until their next session in September. The EPP initially demanded a vote in September but seems to have slackened off from that demand now.

If they do vote, and the nominee — say, von der Leyen — is rejected, the European Council then has one more month to come up with an alternative. It would be an unprecedented political crisis for the European Union.

Date unknown: European Commission, Brussels 

Once a new European Commission president secures the support of the European Parliament, they head up a transition team to form the new executive. 

Each country gets a portfolio and it’s up to European capitals to nominate their commissioners. Last time round, von der Leyen asked each country to put forward two candidates — a man and a woman. If she comes back for a second term, we can expect the same process. 

The Commission president does hold power in this process by creating portfolios and divvying them up between commissioners. We can expect a tooth-and-nail fight to determine who gets what, especially the more illustrious portfolios like competition, defense and trade.

Some of the commissioners will be pre-determined as leaders from more influential countries, such as France and Italy, will ask for guarantees from the European Commission chief in exchange for their support.

One of the 27 commissioners — currently Spain’s Josep Borrell — holds the double-hat of being a vice-president of the Commission and also the high representative for foreign affairs and security policy. His replacement needs to be first nominated by the European Council by qualified majority, and then needs the agreement of the Commission president.

Date unknown: European Parliament, Brussels or Strasbourg

Once the new European Commission president has an idea of the upcoming executive, there is another democratic test.

Each Commissioner-designate faces a grilling by the European Parliament, which uses this opportunity as a show of force. Usually, at least one commissioner fails the test, after which their respective capital has to send a new candidate to Brussels. 

Parliament has upped the ante this year, and is demanding a full organization chart of the 27 and their roles before the hearings start. It has beefed up the interrogations, making them four-hour marathon grillings, with questions grouped by political faction.  Three nominees failed last time round.

Perhaps around November when the U.S. will be holding its election, MEPs will hold a vote on the College of Commissioners as a whole — which won’t be a secret ballot, and will only need approval by a simple majority (more yes votes than no votes). The Commissioners can then crack on with the job providing the vote goes in their favor. 

December 1: European Council, Brussels

Michel’s successor takes office as president of the European Council. The president of the European Council is elected by EU leaders — and Parliament has no say.

Once everyone is in place, the new EU dream team is raring to go.