Trade Fears Could Accelerate Crypto Bottom—Nansen Sees 70% Chance Before June

• Nansen research predicts a 70% probability that cryptocurrencies will hit bottom before June amidst tariff uncertainty.
• Bitcoin holds strong at $82,000 support, eyeing a breakout above $84,500 if market sentiment improves.

According to Nansen’s latest research, there’s a 70% chance cryptocurrencies could hit bottom before June. This expectation is building as the world waits for the next chapter in U.S. trade policy. The markets—crypto and traditional—have been drifting without direction, weighed down by uncertainty over upcoming U.S. import tariffs.

President Donald Trump is set to lay out a more detailed plan on April 2 targeting reciprocal import duties. These tariffs are designed to tackle the nation’s eye-popping $1.2 trillion goods trade deficit while trying to breathe life into domestic manufacturing. That announcement could become a trigger for market movement, either way. But for now, hesitation rules the floor.

With Bitcoin and Ethereum still well below their yearly highs—trading 15% and 22% under, respectively—Nansen analyst Aurelie Barthere believes the market could be setting up for a shift. 

“Nansen data estimates a 70% probability that crypto prices will bottom between now and June,” she explained.

Signs of Stability but No Clear Lift-Off Yet

Barthere added that once the most difficult parts of these negotiations are over, the road may open up for crypto and other risk assets to settle and possibly climb. As things stand, the charts tell a flat story. Nansen’s April 1 report flagged how both U.S. equity indices and Bitcoin have been unable to break back above their 200-day moving averages in any meaningful way. On top of that, other shorter-term price trends are also slipping downward.

Source: Nansen

“Fragile market psychology highlights the necessity of ‘good news,’ mainly on US growth and on tariffs,” the same report said, making clear that hope alone won’t drive a recovery. That fragile mindset is feeding into a hesitant trading environment where people seem content to hold off rather than make bold moves.

Still, all is not doom and gloom. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has held above the “extreme fear” zone for three straight sessions. That might sound like a small win, but it’s enough to hint at a modest shift in mood. Stella Zlatareva of Nexo shared her view: 

This reinforces the view that markets are in a wait-and-see mode.

Bitcoin Holds Its Ground—For Now

Bitcoin, in particular, remains inside a defined range between $82,000 and $87,000. It’s been stuck there as the market digests Q1 movements and braces for what comes next. Zlatareva highlighted the coin’s position, pointing out that $82,000 is acting as strong support. On the upside, if the general sentiment steadies, BTC could aim for $86,500 or even push up toward $90,000.

Traders are especially eyeing a breakout above $84,500, which many see as the next threshold to open up more positive momentum. That move, however, will likely depend on how the upcoming tariff details land. Whether Trump’s new measures calm nerves or spark fresh panic could make all the difference.

Even though the broader financial environment remains stuck in neutral, the belief that crypto may soon find its floor offers a dose of optimism. If history is any guide, bottoms aren’t always clear in real time—but for now, the numbers suggest we may be close.