Trump and Bitcoin: How Institutional Bets on $100K December Calls Could Shape the Market

Despite the lower spot price overnight, data suggests considerable institutional interest in December 2024 $100,000 calls.

This indicates an even stronger confidence in a year-end rally for the world’s largest crypto, particularly as the likelihood of former US President Donald Trump’s victory rises.

Sizeable Institutional Interest

In its latest update, crypto trading firm, QCP Capital said that Bitcoin price action has been resilient despite ongoing challenges such as the continued Mt. Gox supply and declining equities. This stability might indicate that the market has largely overcome its previous concerns.

Perpetual funding rates have normalized, volatility is decreasing, and Bitcoin appears to have settled back into its familiar trading zone of $61,000 to $71,000, where it remained throughout Q2. In the near term, the asset’s spot price might continue to range within this band, particularly with dealers holding “very long” positions in the July 26th $67,000 strike.

However, the market shows strong anticipation for a breakout as the US elections approach. Notably, there is substantial institutional interest in December $100,000 calls, which reflects a strong belief in a year-end rally, owing to the increasing odds of a Trump victory.

Public backing for Trump within the tech industry has surged in recent months. His chosen running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance not only brings experience as a venture capitalist but is also a vocal supporter of Bitcoin and other crypto.

Thanks to Trump’s new stance on Bitcoin, numerous influential tech figures, many with crypto affiliations, have recently endorsed or financially supported him through aligned political action committees. Among these supporters are Elon Musk, the Winklevoss twins, and the partners at one of Silicon Valley’s largest venture capital firms – Andreessen Horowitz.

Despite the Biden administration showing pragmatism in approving the spot Ethereum ETFs, Trump remains a popular choice. In fact, Standard Chartered recently predicted that Bitcoin could surge to $150,000 if Trump wins the presidency.

Biden, who is 81, has also come under increasing pressure from members of his own party to withdraw from the race following his disastrous debate with Trump, 78.

In an interview on Wednesday, Biden said that he might reconsider his decision to stay in the race if a medical condition emerged.  Additionally, a recent survey by AP NORC also found that most Democrats say that he should withdraw in favor of someone else.

Will Biden’s Potential Victory Spell Trouble for US Crypto?

Amidst growing support for Trump within crypto circles, it’s worth noting that discussions about the future of the industry under different political leaderships are intensifying.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently urged voters to exercise caution when voting for political candidates who claim to support digital assets without fully understanding the technology’s fundamentals and goals.

Buterin refrained from revealing any names in his post of either political candidate but still drew criticism from Cardano’s Charles Hoskinson who strongly opposed the 30-year-old exec’s stance and said that re-electing Biden could trigger the demise of the American crypto industry.

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