Turkey lurches toward outright autocracy as Erdoğan’s main rival is jailed

Turkey took a sharp turn toward full autocracy on Sunday when President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s main political rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, was jailed amid a major crackdown on the opposition.

İmamoğlu, a highly popular secularist who was widely seen as the most likely next president to succeed the Islamist Erdoğan, responded with an impassioned call for mass demonstrations to save democracy in the NATO heavyweight of 86 million.

A court on Sunday formally arrested İmamoğlu on corruption charges pending trial, in a step that the opposition argues is a politically motivated “coup.” He was also formally removed from office as mayor of Turkey’s biggest city, on the very day that he was expected to be voted in as the official presidential candidate for the Republican People’s Party (CHP).

“Türkiye woke up to a great betrayal today. The judicial process being carried out is not a judicial procedure. It is a complete extrajudicial execution,” İmamoğlu said on his X account.

Since İmamoğlu’s initial detention on Wednesday, tens of thousands of supporters have taken to the streets in more than a dozen cities, sometimes clashing with riot police and facing water cannon, even in conservative strongholds such as Erdoğan’s hometown of Rize. The protesters turned out despite bans against demonstrations imposed since İmamoğlu’s detention and attempts to limit broadcasting of the popular anger.

Erdoğan beaten at the ballot box

Erdoğan’s backlash against the opposition comes after the CHP’s unexpectedly convincing victories in cities nationwide in the municipal elections of 2024, even in districts that had long been strongholds for the ruling AK Party.

In a stark warning to the protesters of the possible consequences of their actions, Erdoğan described the demonstrations as “street terror” and also had a message for the CHP to which his arrested rival belongs.

“We will definitely not allow the CHP and its supporters to disrupt public order and disturb the peace of our nation through provocation,” the president said in a message posted on X.

İmamoğlu has maintained a defiant tone since his detention and issued a call for voters to support him as the CHP candidate to take on Erdoğan in presidential elections, due by 2028.

The now ex-mayor is the sole candidate in the party’s presidential primary, which is still taking place on Sunday with signs of a high turn-out.

Tens of thousands of supporters have taken to the streets in more than a dozen cities, sometimes clashing with riot police and facing water cannon. | Adem Altan/Getty Images

“You will be defeated one way or another,” İmamoğlu said to Erdoğan on X, calling on Turkey’s entire population to take part in the CHP primary.

“I invite my 86 million citizens to run to the ballot box and announce their struggle for democracy and justice to the entire world,” he said. “I stand tall, I will never bow down.”

Soner Çağaptay, of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, saw İmamoğlu’s arrest as a decisive moment in Turkish political history.

He argued that Turkey had now switched from what he called “competitive authoritarianism,” in which the opposition has a chance to win elections stacked in Erdoğan’s favor, to a straightforward authoritarian system.

“So from that point on, I think Turkey is an authoritarian system, sadly,” Çağaptay told POLITICO.

Unprecedented attack

Since his detention, İmamoğlu has been interrogated for more than nine hours by the authorities and has categorically denied the charges against him. 

On Wednesday, two separate investigations were launched against him and more than 100 others including politicians, businessmen and journalists. The investigations came a day after university authorities cancelled İmamoğlu’s diploma, a necessary requisite for running in the presidential election.

In the investigation that provided the grounds for Sunday’s formal arrest, the Istanbul chief public prosecutor’s office accused İmamoğlu of “establishing and managing a criminal organization, taking bribes, extortion, unlawfully recording personal data and rigging a tender.”

The prosecutor’s office also voiced “strong suspicion” that İmamoğlu had been involved in “aiding an armed terrorist organization,” a reference to alleged ties with pro-Kurdish groups. The court system has not yet given a definitive ruling on the terror charges.

The leader of İmamoğlu’s party also suggested that Erdoğan was even seeking to take over the opposition CHP itself. 

CHP Chairman Özgür Özel announced an extraordinary congress on April 6 to eliminate the possibility of Erdoğan’s government appointing a trustee to run the party. 

“They want to appoint a trustee to Atatürk’s party,” Özel said, referring to the founder of modern day Turkey and of the CHP itself, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.

The authorities have detained 343 protesters, while a number of opposition social media accounts were blocked and the bandwidth of social media platforms was restricted. | Yasin Akgul/Getty Images

“We will announce to all of Turkey that we are blocking any attempts at a trusteeship by taking the party to an extraordinary congress,” he added.

Erdoğan’s judicial and law enforcement apparatus has also launched an unprecedented attack on the main opposition and its supporters. 

The authorities have detained 343 protesters, while a number of opposition social media accounts were blocked and the bandwidth of social media platforms was restricted. WhatsApp, a popular means of communication for Turks, was not available at times. During the five days of demonstrations, pro-government media shied away from reporting on the street protests.

While he was in detention, other investigations were initiated against İmamoğlu, accusing him of irregularities linked to nurseries the Istanbul municipality opened. Since İmamoğlu came into office, more than 90 investigations were opened against him and his aides. 

Erdoğan’s erstwhile long-term political ally, former President Abdullah Gül stepped in to remind Erdoğan that he too was arrested in the past and sent to prison. 

“What was done to President Tayyip Erdoğan and to me in the past should not be done to Ekrem İmamoğlu either … We must not lose the rule of law and justice. Otherwise, Türkiye will lose,” Gül said.

In 1998, Erdoğan was convicted for inciting religious hatred and banned from politics after reciting a poem when he was mayor of Istanbul.

What happens now?

The Turkish constitution limits presidents to two terms and Erdoğan’s current term ends in 2028. If parliament calls for early elections, Erdoğan, 71, could legally run again before finishing his second term. 

Several observers reckon Erdoğan’s gambit is to go for early elections without running against İmamoğlu, as the 54-year-old is seen by many as the only unifying candidate who could beat him in the presidential elections. (While Erdoğan has said he won’t fight any more elections, he has a track record of pretending to step back from politics and his words are not taken seriously by most Turks.)

İmamoğlu has won three fiercely fought contests to run Turkey’s biggest city — and, significantly, the CHP last year managed to flip several traditional districts of Istanbul that Erdoğan viewed as reliable bastions for his Islamist AK Party.

Erdoğan’s government says the investigations are not politically motivated but the whole crisis is caused by the “corruption within the CHP.”