U.S January CPI at 3.1% Triggers Speculation on Fed Rate Cut Delay

• After a 3.4% increase in December, Reuters economists predicted a 2.9% yearly increase.
• The current consensus is that the US Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates in July.

Inflation came in at 3.1% in January, according to figures released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index (CPI). While this was better than market expectations of 2.9%, it was below the 3.4% inflation print from December. The report has also moved the U.S Federal Reserve’s rate cut announcement from June to July, according to market analysts.

Today, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, after a 0.2% rise in December. The all-items index rose 3.1% year-over-year (before adjusting for seasonality). After a 3.4% increase in December, Reuters economists predicted a 2.9% yearly increase in consumer inflation for January.

All Eyes on Fed Now

Speculation among investors over the speed and severity of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and other institutions has persisted since the beginning of the year. With today’s unexpectedly high U.S. CPI, the Fed may have more reason to keep interest rates where they are for the time being instead of lowering them.

The current consensus is that the US Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates in July, rather than June as previously predicted. This shift suggests that historically high interest rates set by the Federal Reserve may remain in place for the duration of the first half of this year.

The US CPI data announcement caused bitcoin values to take a dive. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $48,907, down 2.02% in the last 24 hours as per data from CoinMarketCap.

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