US scholar: China will pay the price of Xi Jinping's rule for invading Taiwan

A recent report released by the Hudson Institute, a Washington-based think tank, found that the United States and its allies have been downplaying the possibility of a conflict with China, but Beijing has not given up using incremental measures to coerce Taiwan, and the People's Liberation Army has even stepped up its preparations for an invasion of Taiwan. In addition, the report also pointed out that China's activities in the so-called "gray zone," including harassing Taiwan's sea and air areas with military aircraft or balloons and conducting large-scale military exercises, may enhance China's ability to successfully invade Taiwan in the future, and these activities do not seem to have triggered a military response from the United States.

The report, titled "Deterring China: Imposing Nonmilitary Costs to Preserve Peace in the Taiwan Strait ," states that the United States should adopt a dynamic deterrence strategy against China to reverse China's growing coercion and military confidence toward Taiwan. The report warns that if China cannot be made to pay a nonmilitary price in the early stages of its coercive or aggressive activities, then once a military conflict occurs, Western society will face higher deterrence costs.

On June 17, local time in Washington, John Lee, one of the authors of the report and a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, warned at a seminar on the report that the United States and its allies need to change their mindset and accept the costs and risks of deterrence in response to China's intention to invade Taiwan. He pointed out that given China's vulnerabilities in food, energy and finance, the West should take tougher actions in these areas to form a stronger deterrent.

“Right now, current U.S. and allied policy on Taiwan ignores the cost element of deterrence, which I think is very dangerous. … Just as China is trying to get us to accept, internalize and normalize its aggressive behavior, we need to get China to internalize and normalize the reality that if it continues to coerce Taiwan in an incremental and sustained manner, it will incur increasing costs.”

John Lee suggested that the United States and its allies should consider taking more aggressive actions and further develop a progressive sanctions framework against Chinese entities. At the same time, Xi Jinping's personal authority and risk tolerance must be taken into consideration.

He said: "For example, the Trump administration's sanctions on Huawei did make Xi Jinping uneasy. Xi Jinping suddenly abandoned the COVID-19 zero-COVID policy because he believed that this long-term policy was not worth the cost of his personal leadership and status." Therefore, he believes that the West needs to establish a targeted strategy regarding Xi Jinping to deter China from changing its relevant policies.

Bryan Clark, senior fellow and director of the Hudson Institute's Center for Defense Concepts and Technologies, pointed out that if China invades Taiwan, the United States and its allies should consider taking extreme measures that could cause extreme social and political instability in China to deter China from changing its policies.

“Now, because you are no longer negotiating with China but directly with Xi Jinping, we have to consider what would be pressure points for Xi Jinping that might cause him to choose not to invade Taiwan,” he said.

Thomas J. Duesterberg, a global economic expert at the Hudson Institute, also believes that the Chinese economy is not as strong as its official description, and that the West can exploit the relevant economic weaknesses to force Xi Jinping to make concessions.

“If we show concrete signs of exploiting these weaknesses, Xi Jinping will have to decide whether to continue to uphold the original contract between the CCP and the Chinese people, which is to maintain the CCP’s rule and, in particular, Xi Jinping’s personal position through economic growth and prosperity. Although Xi Jinping has ignored public opinion, his actions show that he will change his decision when faced with enough pressure.”