Von der Leyen and Co. are in: What happens next

BRUSSELS — Now comes the tricky part.

EU leaders on Thursday endorsed a second five-year term for Ursula von der Leyen as European Commission president.

Now the German center-right politician faces a knife-edge vote in the European Parliament, which even her own party allies admit will be more of a challenge to pull off. 

When the Parliament of 720 MEPs meets in mid-July she will need to convince just over half,  at least 361, to vote for her in a secret ballot. The current coalition of socialists, liberals and her own center-right grouping hold a little under 400 of those seats. Some analysts project a defection rate of around 10 percent, which would put her right around the 361 mark. The vote could come as early as July 18. 

In 2019, when von der Leyen was a crisis-hit German defense minister who was plucked to take on the EU’s most powerful job, she only made it across the line by nine votes. 

This time she’s got a proven track record, but many of the parties that backed her then — such as the nationalist Polish Law & Justice party — will not do so now.

Numbers game

To be successful this time she will have to make a near-impossible political calculation: Does she stick with the three parties in the center, turn left to the Greens, or widen the tent by including parts of the hard-right group that includes Giorgia Meloni? The Italian prime minister abstained from voting for von der Leyen on Thursday night.

There are risks attached to all three strategies.

Hedging her bets and keeping her coalition narrow is unlikely to provide the numbers von der Leyen needs. Together her center-right European People’s Party, the Socialists and Democrats and the liberal Renew group have just under 400 seats. That’s an uncomfortably narrow majority, especially given that chunks of that coalition — from the French Republicans to the Irish Fianna Fáil — have already said they won’t vote for her. 

Enlisting the Greens is also a risky bet. After five years in which they largely opposed von der Leyen, the environmentalists are now clamoring to be part of the majority supporting her, which would give them a chance to influence legislation even though they’ve lost seats since 2019. But while embracing the Greens would please the Socialists and parts of Renew, it would almost certainly alienate parts of von der Leyen’s own center-right power base, especially the powerful German Christian Democrats.

The riskiest strategy of all, though, is to woo Meloni and perhaps other parts of the European Conservatives and Reformists grouping, which is now in third place in the Parliament having pipped Renew to that influential spot.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz deliberately avoided involving Meloni in the negotiations between the six top political negotiators, EU officials stressed. 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz deliberately avoided involving Giorgia Meloni in the negotiations between the six top political negotiators, EU officials stressed. | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images

That fits with how it’s been shaking out in the Parliament, where the Socialists and Renew have set a red line: If they so much as sniff von der Leyen doing a deal with Meloni, they’ll pull the plug on her. 

Von der Leyen, who has been meeting one-on-one with the socialist and liberal leaders in the legislature, will come to the Parliament’s highest political body July 2 for closed-door talks with the heads of the groups. 

The next few weeks will be dominated by negotiations she will hold with senior MEPs on her so-called political guidelines, which will form the basis of her policy agenda. 

If she comes up short in the secret ballot, even by a single vote, the European Council has a month to deliberate and come up with a candidate, an outcome that would be unprecedented and could spark a political crisis.

If she is appointed to another term, she can then talk to national governments about their individual nominees for commissioner, although countries have already started jostling informally for the names and portfolios they want.

It’s expected that von der Leyen will again ask for two options from each government, a female and a male candidate; how she distributes the portfolios is up to her. Last time around she caused consternation on the left of the political spectrum by creating a portfolio for the European way of life, a role held by Greek Commissioner Margaritis Schinas. And will there still be executive vice presidents of the Commission, or will they be discarded in favor of a flatter structure?

Each commissioner will face a tough grilling in the Parliament, and then the entire College of Commissioners — which includes Kaja Kallas, who was picked as high representative for foreign affairs — needs to be voted through by a majority of MEPs in a vote that will not be secret.

As for António Costa, who will become president of the European Council until at least June 2027, he can breathe a bit more easily, as he doesn’t need the backing of the Parliament. 

Barbara Moens contributed reporting.