Von der Leyen, Meloni and the battle for Brussels’ top jobs: What’s next?

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BRUSSELS — Seconds out, Round 2!

EU leaders this week failed to agree on who should fill the EU’s top jobs. Next week, they’ll try again. But the party of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is getting greedy — and it could have major repercussions for her and for the continent.

So what’s next for von der Leyen and where do Europe’s big hitters stand? POLITICO has the answers to some of the biggest questions about the big top jobs carve-up.

Will Ursula von der Leyen get EU leaders’ blessing next week?

Von der Leyen’s first hoop to jump through — getting the sign-off from EU leaders — is not a done deal yet. Her center-right European People’s Party, also the winners of the European election, raised the stakes by demanding a bigger slice of the top jobs cake after their victory. At a summit on Monday, the EPP pushed to split the five-year term of the European Council president with the socialists.

The hubris of the conservatives has irked the socialists, the second biggest group in the European Parliament.

“The EPP has lit a fire that they are no longer in control over,” said one EU official who, like others quoted in this piece, was granted anonymity to discuss the EU’s top leadership. “If they continue this bullying, [Charles] Michel’s biggest dream to tackle Ursula will become a reality” — a reference to the European Council president’s plans to thwart von der Leyen’s second-term ambitions.

So far, von der Leyen remains the clear front-runner to stay on. While other names, such as Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, were floated before the election, no one considers them as real alternatives, especially as they would also have to find support in the European Parliament.

The next step for the EU’s top brass is to double down on behind-the-scenes negotiations to lock in von der Leyen at the EU leaders’ meeting next week in Brussels.

“No one is telling us: ‘you are fucked,’” an EPP official close to von der Leyen said.

But it’s not that straightforward. The longer it takes to find support for the current top jobs package — von der Leyen at the Commission, Portugal’s António Costa as European Council president, Malta’s Roberta Metsola as the European Parliament boss and Estonia’s Kaja Kallas as foreign policy chief — the more it risks being undermined. Another EU official quipped that “if you’re being fucked over in politics, you usually don’t get a polite warning beforehand.”

What does Giorgia Meloni really want?

Then there is Italian Prime Minister Meloni, who is part of the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists group in the EU Parliament. She has been firing warning shots that she’s not happy about being excluded from the top jobs negotiations involving the coalition partners — EPP, socialists and liberals.

“If I have to talk on behalf of [Brothers of Italy] I have to tell you that for now, for us, it’s impossible to vote in favor of Ursula von der Leyen or all the others, because we don’t know the political agenda,” said Nicola Procaccini, an European lawmaker from Meloni’s Brothers of Italy.

Meloni has pointed out that her group is currently the third biggest in the 720-seat European Parliament, inching ahead of the liberals for that spot.

“When we were at the European Council, some arrived with proposals for the top jobs without even reflecting on what the indications of voters were and the change in step on priorities,” Meloni said on Wednesday. “I think those trying to do this deal tried to rush because they realize that it could be a fragile agreement.”

As ECR will not be part of the coalition supporting von der Leyen, the top negotiators from the three centrist parties don’t see why it should take part in the backroom consultations.

In terms of demands, Meloni is keeping her cards close to her chest, five EU diplomats said.

She has her eyes on a top economic portfolio for Rome in the next Commission, along with an executive vice-president or vice-president title for ECR. One of the top names floated for such a job is Raffaele Fitto, the current Italian EU minister. A moderate, Fitto is seen as a bridge between parties since he left Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, a member of the EPP, in 2015, to join the ECR. His departure from government also would not lead to a reshuffle of Meloni’s Cabinet.

Elisabetta Belloni, the current head of Italian intelligence who organized the G7 meeting last week, is another name circulating in Rome and Brussels for the EU’s chief diplomat role. In the current top jobs package, that job is set to go to Estonian Prime Minister Kallas.

Officials stressed the chances of Belloni getting that role seem slim as Meloni appears more interested in an economic portfolio and it is important that someone from the eastern part of the bloc gets one of the EU’s top jobs.

Why does everyone care so much about Meloni?

Technically, von der Leyen doesn’t need the support of all EU leaders. She can sail through with the backing of a majority of them and without the support of the Italian prime minister.

However, “I don’t see a new Commission president coming into office without the support of the Italian prime minister,” said Sophia Russack, a researcher at the Centre for European Policy Studies, a think tank.

Meloni, the leader of the bloc’s third-largest economy, is one of the few European leaders who came out of the European election strengthened.

“You can’t just keep ignoring Meloni,” said another EU diplomat, who warned that things could quickly escalate if no one reaches out to Rome.

Another EU official stressed that “there is no such thing as a boycott against Meloni” on the part of the negotiators from the EPP, socialists and liberals. “There is no intention of including ECR in the coalition. But there is respect for Meloni’s role in the European Council.”

Is there enough to keep the East happy?

The current package would give a top job to one of the Eastern European Union countries Estonia’s Kallas), whose political weight has become more important since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Poland also has clout in the negotiations. Prime Minister Donald Tusk is the only EPP leader of a big European country and came out stronger from the European election. His foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski, has snubbed a potential role as EU defense commissioner because it doesn’t have enough weight.

Warsaw is instead said to be eyeing a bigger portfolio, such as enlargement, while other Central and Eastern European nations are hoping to secure the transport portfolio, seeing it as key for them to increase trade volumes with the rest of the bloc.

What are the next steps?

The three main political groups’ lead negotiators are in constant talks about locking in the current top jobs package when EU leaders meet next week. Ahead of that meeting, the negotiators have penciled in a video call, two officials briefed on the negotiations said.

Then the ball will be in the court of the European Parliament, which is set to vote on the next European Commission president in mid-July. This scenario avoids a summer of political uncertainty at the EU’s highest level while Russia continues to wage war in Ukraine and with a looming U.S. election in November, diplomats stressed.

Will von der Leyen get through the European Parliament?

The European Parliament, the second hoop for von der Leyen to jump through, is also still far from a done deal. The coalition of the EPP, socialists and liberals risks being too small to get von der Leyen the required 361 votes (out of 720), as some experts reckon about 10 percent of MEPs within those ranks are unlikely to vote for her. That coalition has about 400 MEPs. The EPP’s recent “greedy and arrogant behavior” could lead to more leakage of votes from the socialists, another EU official said.

In the European Parliament, it’s one strike and you’re out. If von der Leyen fails, it’s up to the European Council to suggest an alternative candidate to become European Commission president. That risks leading to an institutional crisis, diplomats warned.

“It’s a high gamble” if von der Leyen fails, said Russack. “It would be quite damaging for the reputation of the EU institutions and it will delay things terribly … then the whole shebang starts from scratch.”

One diplomat suggested if von der Leyen’s appointment is not approved, the rest of the top jobs puzzle could be in jeopardy. The gender and nationality of an alternate candidate might throw off the current balance that von der Leyen strikes with Costa and Kallas.

“It would be hard to replace her with another female EPP member from Northern Europe,” said one diplomat. “Depending on who is proposed as a replacement, everyone else might also have to be reshuffled.”

When does this end?

If EU leaders approve the top jobs package next week and the European Parliament backs von der Leyen in mid-July, the new European Commission is set to be installed around November 1.

If EU leaders fail to agree on a package next week, they are set to meet again for an extra European Council in the summer (and if necessary, another one, and another one). The next opportunity to vote on the future leader of the EU’s executive in the European Parliament is not until September (if there is no consensus in July), which would also delay the start of the next European Commission.

Hannah Roberts contributed reporting from Rome. Eddy Wax, Nicholas Vinocur and Sarah Wheaton contributed reporting from Brussels.

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