Von der Leyen’s charm offensive ahead of secret, knife-edge vote on her future

4 months ago 2

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BRUSSELS — The EU institution that is the most vocal about democracy and accountability is next week set to make one of its most important decisions — in secret.

Members of the European Parliament — many of them brand-new lawmakers — are expected to vote on July 18 on whether European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen deserves a second term (the exact day of the vote will be finalized on Thursday). She already has the backing of a majority of national leaders. But to get over the line in the Parliament, von der Leyen needs the votes of 361 of the 720 MEPs. If she fails, she’s out and EU national leaders will have to come up with an alternative.

That would be a disaster for the bloc’s credibility — and for von der Leyen’s career.

So von der Leyen and her team are hitting the phones and meeting as many European lawmakers as possible, often individually, as not every EU political group or national head of delegation can guarantee the votes of all their MEPs.

“You have to negotiate and hope they will honor their promise,” said a person close to von der Leyen who was granted anonymity, like others in this article, to speak freely. “There is a big difference from last time. She knows the European Parliament, she already has a lot of those personal relationships with MEPs.”

But because the vote will happen in secret, it’s difficult for von der Leyen and group leaders to carry out “good, old-fashioned American whipping,” said European People’s Party Secretary General Thanasis Bakolas, referencing the practice of using incentives or threats to get lawmakers to fall in line.

“It’s challenging,” said former Commission President José Manuel Barroso, who twice (successfully) faced a secret vote by MEPs. “They are really independent when they vote secretly.”

That independence comes at the cost of accountability to voters.

“It’s undemocratic,” said Nathalie Brack, a political science professor at the Université Libre de Bruxelles.

The European Parliament constantly urges the European Commission and the Council of the EU to be more transparent, to take into account the result of the EU election when they choose who should get the bloc’s top jobs, and to support the Spitzenkandidaten or lead candidate system, Brack pointed out.

“But at the same time, citizens don’t know the direct link between their vote for a MEP and whether that MEP will vote for or against the next European Commission president. From a democratic perspective, this isn’t great.”

The European Parliament stressed that its rules make clear that the election of the president of the European Commission has to be carried out by secret ballot. “In general, votes on individuals are frequently secret,” a spokesperson said, pointing to appointments for the European Court of Auditors or the European Central Bank.

Rules of the game

For von der Leyen, the secret vote has upsides and downsides.

On the one hand, lawmakers can publicly claim to dislike her but cut secret deals with her anyway. On the other hand, there’s no way to ensure that lawmakers will follow through on promises to vote for her.

To pass the 361-vote bar, von der Leyen will hope for as much support as possible from the centrist groups that backed her last time — her own EPP, the center-left Socialists & Democrats (S&D), and the liberal Renew — who collectively have almost 400 seats.

The big question is what Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brother of Italy lawmakers will do. Meloni abstained when it came time to vote on von der Leyen in the Council of the EU. Von der Leyen has so far not yet met with the European Conservatives and Reformists — but abstentions are worth the same as votes against in the Parliament ballot.

But even within the centrist groups, there are dissident delegations and lawmakers. Some have already openly said they won’t vote for von der Leyen, others could back her in public but still push the ‘No’ button in Strasbourg.

That is one of the reasons why the European Parliament has made this vote secret, said Brack.

“The goal is that MEPs don’t face pressure from their party, or from their group, so that they vote as they wish. The idea is that this strengthens the autonomy of their parliamentary mandate,” she said.

Richard Corbett, a former U.K. Labour Party MEP, said the secrecy of the vote led to a big discussion when it was put into the Parliament’s rulebook. Corbett said he wanted votes to be made public to be more accountable to citizens.

Others argued the vote should be secret to prevent outside pressure, for example from national governments, and to safeguard MEPs’ independence, which is also the case in the German Bundestag when they vote on a chancellor, Corbett recalled. “I lost. It was one of those issues where national parliamentary traditions influenced attitudes.”

Of course, there is still pressure. Several government leaders, party and group leaders, or heads of delegations are putting pressure on their MEPs to get in line. Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris, who hails from the same EPP family as von der Leyen, has already said he will be “engaging” with Irish MEPs ahead of the vote.

Von der Leyen herself is taking no chances. She is skipping the NATO summit in Washington this week to focus “on her work to build a majority for a strong Europe in the European Parliament,” Eric Mamer, chief spokesperson of the European Commission, said.

But even if hands are shaken and deals made, MEPs can still choose to vote against von der Leyen without anyone ever knowing.

This weakens a potential second term for von der Leyen, said an EU official. Von der Leyen has to beg and give concessions to get lawmakers on board, the official argued. As she has no guarantees, she needs to do this with as many MEPs as possible, giving out political capital like sweets.

Eva Poptcheva, an outgoing MEP for Renew, played down the possibility of MEPs saying one thing and doing another.

“I don’t think many people will feel the need to say to her ‘I am going to vote for you’ and in the end not do it,” she said.

Time to cash in

The endless horse trading is exactly why a secret ballot is “absolutely only on a benefit” for von der Leyen, said Jacob Moroza-Rasmussen, a former chief at the pan-European liberal ALDE party.

And of course those who have negotiated concessions can only cash them in if von der Leyen stays in office.

In fact, that’s exactly how von der Leyen won her first mandate, Moroza-Rasmussen said at a recent briefing by the consultancy APCO Worldwide, where he’s now a senior director.

The Polish Law and Justice Party (PiS) “didn’t have to go out and say ‘we voted for von der Leyen.’ But it’s a public secret that they were given certain benefits to vote for her to get her over the line last time,” Moroza-Rasmussen said. PiS is a part of the European Conservatives and Reformists group alongside Meloni’s MEPs and has had a toxic relationship with Brussels over rule of law issues.

If you see Parliament committee chairs or other plum positions being given to “surprising” groups or individual members, Moroza-Rasmussen added, “you should probably look out for that being part of the deal.”

No backup plan

The lack of alternatives — and fear of political chaos — helps von der Leyen.

If she comes up short of the magic number of 361, even by a single vote, the European Council has a month to deliberate and come up with another candidate, an outcome that would be unprecedented and could spark a political crisis, especially since there are no other obvious candidates would could pass both the European Council and the European Parliament.

“Good luck getting Plenković or Mitsotakis through that vote,” said another EU official, pointing to the Croatian and Greek prime ministers, whose names were floated as alternatives to von der Leyen ahead of the EU election.

The need for political stability amid Russia’s war in Ukraine, Hungary’s tumultuous presidency of the Council of the EU, and a potential change in American leadership in November helped von der Leyen get the support of EU heads of state and government last month. Now, she and her team are making the same argument with the European Parliament.

The big uncertainty is the large number of new European lawmakers. The current Parliament is more diverse and divided than at any point in the EU’s modern history. With a stronger hard right, it becomes even more important to convince pro-European lawmakers, including ones who have never set foot in Brussels or Strasbourg before.

“Some people will never vote for her because they don’t want the European Union to work,” Barroso, who is also from the EPP, said in an interview last week. But even beyond the “core parties,” he said, “other people, they want the European Union to work.”

He added: “There is not a credible alternative to Ursula von der Leyen.”

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