Who is Germany’s Plan B commissioner if von der Leyen crashes out?

Ursula von der Leyen’s potential political demise may well end up being a boon for Germany’s Greens.

In the event von der Leyen isn’t selected for a second term as European Commission president — a distinct possibility given the likelihood that the European Parliament will be considerably more hostile to the German leader after the June 6-9 EU election — Germany’s Greens can can bet on securing an influential commissioner post that will significantly raise the profile of the party in Brussels.

That’s because the coalition agreement between the three parties that rule Germany — the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) — stipulates that the Greens can nominate a candidate for another top job should the Commision president “not come from Germany.”

On the shortlist, according to several German government officials and MEPs who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, are two politicians few in Europe have on their radar: Franziska Brantner and Sven Giegold, both of whom are state secretaries in the German economy ministry headed by Robert Habeck, a Greens leader and Germany’s vice chancellor.

Both potential picks come with considerable EU experience, but Brantner, who is responsible for EU and trade policy within the economy ministry, appears to be in pole position for a potential Commission post. Currently a lawmaker in the German Bundestag, she has previously served as an MEP and is the German government’s special representative for an international initiative to reduce corruption related to raw materials extraction.

Giegold is considered to be Habeck’s right-hand man, focusing on policy related to small and medium-sized enterprises, among other areas. He previously served as a Greens MEP for over a decade, including a stint on the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. He describes himself as “committed to regulating the financial markets in the interest of the real economy and the citizens.”

Ursula von der Leyen’s potential political demise may well end up being a boon for Germany’s Greens. | Fredrik Sandberg/EPA

Ultimately, it’s up to the Greens leadership to choose which candidate gets a potential post.

“In the end, the decisive factor will be which Commission post ultimately becomes available,” said one person familiar with internal Greens deliberations. “One thing is clear: We want access to a powerful post.”

Possible Commission posts the Greens are targeting would involve oversight of the EU budget, energy policy, or even foreign affairs.

Germany’s current foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, has been mentioned as a possible candidate for the prestigious EU’s chief diplomat position, currently held by Josep Borrell. It’s thought very unlikely Baerbock would leave her current position, however, particularly as she may fancy her chances running for chancellor in the federal election next year. Similarly, Habeck could theoretically go for a top EU job, but is also seen as having ambitions on the top job in Berlin.

One Greens politician well known in the European Parliament is thought not to be a contender for a potential top job. Terry Reintke, the Greens’ lead candidate for the European election, is said to be an unlikely choice. The 37-year-old MEP has little administrative experience and is likely to remain parliamentary group head.