Who’s the odds-on favourite to win Tory leadership race as nominations close today

Nominations for the Tory leadership contest close at 2:30pm today (Monday 29 July) with six contenders set to pave the direction of the upcoming race.

Kemi Badenoch was the latest to officially enter the line-up which includes Priti Patel, Tom Tugendhat, James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick and Mel Stride.

Candidates who receive the sufficient support of 10 party members will spend the summer campaigning, before two voting rounds by MPs in early September followed by the all important party conference later that month.

When Conservative Home conducted a survey of 995 Conservative Party members at the start of July, the publication found a quarter backed Kemi Badenoch for leader. The survey suggests Badenoch will fight with Jenrick for support from the Right of the party, as he came joint second place with Tugendhat both with 13% of support from members.

Polling by Savanta UK found Tom Tugendhat to be the most popular Conservative leadership contender among both the public and 2024 Tory voters, while Priti Patel came up least popular.

The poll, conducted between 19-21 July found that -3% of the UK adults had a favourable opinion to Tugendhat – the highest of the contenders billed at that moment in time.

The Shadow Minister for Security is popular among the moderate One Nation Tory group and had a net favourable vote among conservative voters of 21%. He was followed by James Cleverly who scored -9 with the public and 19 with recent Conservative voters.

This compares to the poor scoring for former Home Secretary Priti Patel at 7 among Conservative voters, and -28 among the general public.

But according to the bookies, the odds are with Kemi Badenoch with bet365 odds at 13/8 for the former Business and Trade Minister, then Robert Jenrick at 13/5, followed by Tom Tugendhat, James Cleverly, Priti Patel then Mel Stride.

Braverman, who had been predicted to run in the contest representing the hard right of the party has announced she won’t be standing.

Hannah Davenport is news reporter at Left Foot Forward

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