Who you gonna call when France gets ungovernable?

PARIS  — It’s September 2024. Christine Lagarde has only been French prime minister for 10 days, and already it feels like months.

She has arrived in a typically drizzly Brussels with what she describes as her “roadmap” to save the eurozone’s second-biggest economy, but the markets see her recipe as too little, too late to extinguish the blaze. The CAC share index in Paris and French bonds are in free fall.

Flashing a brave smile, in a few staccato talking points with the press before meeting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the former chief of the European Central Bank (ECB) rolls out the soothing jargon she used so often over the years when the eurozone was in peril. She praises France for its resilience, productivity and competitiveness.

But the words are no longer working their magic: Fears about France’s political instability —caught between a high-spending far left and a high-spending far right — run too deep. France is now being mentioned in the same breath as Italy as the Achilles heel of the EU.

Since the June snap election, France has had to ride one storm after another.

After the far right won the most votes, weeks of protests shook poor, immigrant neighborhoods from Marseille to Lille, stretching the police to the limit during the Paris Olympics. In a counter blast, farmers and other disaffected citizens from the countryside hit the capital, smashing windows along the Champs-Élysées and spraying ministries with manure.

The 68-year-old Lagarde had been President Emmanuel Macron’s last-ditch candidate to form a government as he battled to suppress the post-electoral tumult by borrowing from the Italian playbook and appointing an emergency cabinet of experts.

With no political grouping having won enough votes to form a majority, coalition talks failed repeatedly. Macron hesitated briefly over Lagarde — wondering whether she wasn’t a bigger asset to France at the ECB — but finally plucked her from her job long before her term was to expire in 2027. Ultimately, it made more sense to have a global heavyweight steadying matters in Paris as the French economy teetered on the brink.

Not so fanciful

This is, of course, fiction … but not so fanciful. The polls suggest that no single political group will secure a majority in the two-round election on June 30 and July 7, and fears are growing that the French economy will nosedive if Macron’s liberal centrists implode, squeezed almost out of existence by the left and the far right.

Luring Lagarde from a snug ECB job into the Paris inferno may seem far-fetched today, but French political circles are already discussing the possibility of appointing technocrats to lead the country. 

“One of the solutions could be to appoint a government of experts that would be able to hold for a year or so,” said public law specialist Eric Landot, who cited former ECB President and poetry enthusiast Jean-Claude Trichet — no spring chicken at 81 years of age — or Lagarde as possible candidates. 

Macron and his allies have also floated the idea of building a broad coalition including moderate lawmakers from the left and the right — but this is unlikely in such a bitterly polarized political landscape, and the legislature could instead end up paralyzed.

Fears are growing that the French economy will nosedive if Emmanuel Macron’s liberal centrists implode. | Pool Photo by Dylan Martinez via Getty Images

“France does not practice coalition governments, unless it’s coalitions where all parties are on the same side of the political spectrum,” said French constitutional law professor Lauréline Fontaine. 

Fears of a hung parliament have even gripped the president’s own camp. “What’s at stake is the future of the nation … Either there is a clear majority, or we run the risk of a regime crisis,” Macron’s Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said.

Political custom dictates the president should pick a prime minister from the party or coalition with the most seats in the parliament.

With the far right projected to obtain the largest share of seats in the National Assembly, Macron may be forced, however reluctantly, to tap its leader Jordan Bardella to form a new government. But it remains unclear whether the 28-year-old — who said he would not be “an aide to the president” and would only govern with a majority — would accept Macron’s proposal.

“I struggle to believe Bardella would refuse the premiership,” said Jean-Yves Camus, a specialist on the far right at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. “Millions of National Rally voters have been waiting for this moment with bated breath … Bardella can’t say: ‘Oh no I don’t have enough seats’ when they’re on the cusp of taking power.”

But Bardella might indeed refuse to govern without his specified majority in order to avoid being tarnished by a chaotic period at the helm before the National Rally’s Marine Le Pen makes her push for the presidency in 2027.

If Bardella did become France’s first far-right prime minister without a parliamentary majority, opposition parties could easily band together to pass a vote of no confidence and topple the government. 

That’s why, according to Camus, Le Pen doesn’t appear “in a hurry” to grab the prime minister job for herself or for Bardella. In addition to “the usual difficulties of ruling with a relative majority” — the total of the election winner, but still less than half the seats in parliament — the National Rally is seen as too toxic for most other parties, he said.

On the other hand, if the left comes in first, they too may be unable to form a minority government. While the four main left-wing parties in France managed to unite in the days after Macron’s shock decision to call snap elections, their alliance remains fragile and prone to infighting, making stable governance an unlikely prospect.

Moreover, with only days to go before the first round, the left can’t even agree on a candidate for prime minister. On Sunday, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leftist firebrand leader of the France Unbowed party, which is likely to get the most seats on the left, again said he “wants to govern the country” but that he won’t “impose” himself.

Emmanuel Macron may be forced to tap its leader Jordan Bardella to form a new government. | Geoffrey Van Der Hansel/Getty Images

Other left-wing parties don’t want him in charge.

“I think there a growing consensus that it can’t be Mélenchon, now we’ve got to find the method to stop him … He is too controversial, too hated by the French,” said a Socialist Party official, who was granted anonymity to discuss such a sensitive topic.

Bring in the experts

Despite its stormy politics, France has a history of strong governments and would be entering uncharted territory if Macron couldn’t find a prime minister who could stay in the job. Hence the speculation that he may have to resort to appointing an apolitical team of specialists. 

In addition to ECB chiefs Trichet and Lagarde, the French president could also consider appointing a parliamentary grandee such as opposition centrist MP Charles de Courson, a grandson of French war heroes who assisted the resistance during World War II and is popular with the left and the right, said political analyst Benjamin Morel in Le Figaro.

A technocratic government “wouldn’t be ambitious” on hot-button topics such as “farming or end-of-life legislation,” said public law specialist Landot. “It wouldn’t seek dramatic changes on the budget and or try to reform areas that are controversial.”

France would also be following the previous example of Italy, where in 2012 former EU Commissioner Mario Monti was appointed to head a government of experts when the markets went haywire. 

But whoever headed a technocratic government would likely have to endure a stormy National Assembly, because the French president can’t call for a parliamentary election within 12 months of a snap election.

“[A prime minister] might just about be able to govern, but in that first year, members of parliament could have fun bringing down the government, without being threatened by a dissolution in return,” Landot said.    

The political uncertainty could prove most dangerous when it comes to the budget — a flashpoint in international markets given that Paris is already a concern when it comes to debt and public finances, and risks turning into an all-out enfant terrible.

If the budget isn’t agreed in time, the government can implement it by decree, to maintain public services without parliamentary approval.

Despite its stormy politics, France has a history of strong governments. | Oliver Chassignole/Getty Images

But without political legitimacy, a technocratic government would find it virtually impossible to implement crucial reforms or to make budget cuts. France, meanwhile, is facing strong economic headwinds and risks being sanctioned by the EU Commission over its debt and finances.

In such a chaotic landscape, only one man could retain some semblance of authority: Macron.

Ahead of the election, Le Pen said the French president would be left with “only one choice: to resign” if the country became completely stalled. If France sinks into an institutional crisis, ever more voices are expected to call for him to stand down.

But there are other options. In a sign of the times, the French press is reviewing the whole gamut of presidential powers, including the “exceptional powers” that can be used in case of an institutional crisis — which could include massive unrest following an election.

Such constitutional powers were only used on one occasion, after a coup attempt by retired French generals in Algeria against Charles de Gaulle.

At the Élysée Palace, various options are being discussed. “They are racking their brains” about the future, said a person with direct knowledge of the presidential conversations.

Macron will study every option in the book.

“He knows his constitution by heart,” a presidential adviser noted.

Sarah Paillou contributed reporting.