Will Bitcoin Repeat the March 2020 Crash? Analyst Warns of Similar Trends

• Alan Santana predicts Bitcoin may face a similar capitulation event to the March 2020 crash after 224 days of sideways movement.
• Bitcoin whales have increased holdings by 1.9% in two weeks, while retail wallets have seen minimal growth.

Technical analysis by prominent crypto trader and analyst Alan Santana on TradingView shows that Bitcoin has been sideways for 224 days. Based on the market activity in early to mid-2019, Santana contrasts the present trend with the 2013/14 bullish wave he had earlier mentioned as a “recovery wave.”

The main distinction this time, though, is that Bitcoin already reached a new all-time high (ATH) before the sideways shift. Santana notes that this trend somewhat closely reflects the behavior of the market prior to the March 2020 collapse.

Source: Alan Santana on TradingView

Similar Patterns Emerging as Bitcoin Faces Potential 2024 Capitulation Event 

Following a peak in July, Bitcoin entered a sideways phase with lower highs for exactly 224 days back in 2019, producing a similar bounce as seen lately. Bitcoin saw a little surge throughout the last five weeks of that sideways pattern, then a neutral week, and finally, shockingly, the last crash happened.

This sudden drop surprised many traders, and Santana believes that things might be similar in 2024. He draws attention to the possibility of a capitulation event whereby BTC might drop to levels it traded in around October or September 2023.

Like in March 2020, Santana believes the possible fall may last three weeks of strong bearish behavior. Before the notable decline, Bitcoin may spend the first two weeks hanging at its highest. Bitcoin tested a low price range observed in late 2018/early 2019 during the 2020 crash, then recovered quickly following the initial fall.

Should the same trend continue, Bitcoin may suddenly drop to comparable values as late as 2023, then swiftly recover. Emphasizing that $43,000 is not the lowest, he also cautions that the longer the market waits to undergo this catastrophe, the more severe it will be.

Meanwhile, with a daily trading volume of $30.64 billion and a 1.57% increase over the last 24 hours, BTC is trading at $67,812.05 as of the time of writing. A mix of institutional and retail activity drives this price motion, and Bitcoin whales have accumulating notably.

According to CNF, over the past two weeks, Bitcoin wallets containing 100 or more BTC have jumped 297. While retail wallets experienced just a 0.1% rise in the same period, large wallet holders increased by 1.9%.