Will History Repeat as Bitcoin Price Flashes Tenth Death Cross?

Bitcoin price slipped below $60,000 after the weekend crash, but has since recovered close to retesting this psychological level. The death cross showcases the potential bearish outlook that BTC could face, but on-chain data clearly shows whales or institutions are unbothered by this sell signal.

Bitcoin Price Faces Death Cross 

Bitcoin Price flashed the death cross on August 11, signaling a bearish outlook for the cryptocurrency. This sell signal is flashed when the 50-day simple moving average crosses below the 200-day simple moving average. This popular bearish signal has caused major crashes for BTC in its 13-year history.

Six out of the last nine times BTC Price created a death cross, there was a steep correction. On average, BTC crashes 27% after this signal is flashed. Ignoring the September 2015 crossover, the average crash is 30%, with the largest correction of -47%. 

But not all 50-day and 200-day moving average crossovers have been bearish. The March 2018 death cross catalyzed a 45% rally.

Will BTC Price Crash?

Bitocin price has already triggered a steep correction influenced by the macroeconomic uncertainty between late July and early August. During a bull run, these corrections are often undone quickly. 

If the worst were to happen, then the death cross would prompt a prolonged correction for BTC. Assuming history rhymes, then an average crash of 27% would put Bitcoin price at $43,987.50, close to the weekly support level at $47,789.

Bitcoin Price 1-day chart

The technical outlook shows no significant bias, but a close at on-chain data shows investors are buying. Santiment’s Active Stablecoin deposits and BTC Volume metrics both saw a major uptick on August 5, suggesting that investors were buying the dips.

Likewise, the weekend crash also saw investors deploy their stablecoins, suggesting a bullish outlook from market participants. 

BTC Price vs Active Stablecoin Deposits & BTC Volume

Furthermore, the BTC held on exchanges have plummeted from 1.93 million on August 5 to 1.92 million, indicating an outflow of 10,000 BTC in the past week. On the August 5 crash, the whale transacitons worth $100,000 or more spiked to nearly 4,000, clearly indicating a buy the dip pattern. The weekend crash also prompted a similar uptick to 1,350, showcasing a smaller accumulation intention from whales. 

Overall, the outlook for Bitcoin price remains on the fence as global economic conditions remain uncertain. Investors must tread cautiously and avoid focusing on the long-term trends until after the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in September.

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